Looking forward: Technology trends in 2007

By Ken Doyle

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A new year typically brings with it speculation about new developments in technology. While few of us have access to a crystal ball that will predict the hottest gadgets and devices for the year, there are some trends worth examining, as they directly impact the way we work.

Personal computers with a single-core processor are quickly becoming dinosaurs. Dual-core processors will be the standard for notebook computers, while desktop models will harness even greater processor power. Dell recently introduced servers with eight cores (two Intel Xeon quad-core processors). Apple has made four cores standard across its Mac Pro line, and eight-core models are expected by the time you read this article.

The impact of multi-core processors is basically increased processing power, which means faster computing and (in theory) an increase in productivity.

While processors gain speed, graphics processing units (GPUs) will attempt to keep pace with the growing demands of newer operating systems. Although GPUs aren't going multicore, manufacturers will offer more PCs with two GPUs on a single card. External units like nVidia's Quadro Plex solve the problem of excessive heat generated by powerful GPUs, but with a price tag that starts at almost $18,000, don't expect the Quadro Plex to make its way onto your desk this year.

On the storage front, expect to see increasing use of flash memory chips on computer motherboards, allowing PCs to boot up instantly when you press the power button. Such PCs save all your settings to flash memory when you shut down, so they can be loaded almost instantly when the computer is powered up again. Flash memory will also find its way into more hard drives, speeding up access to and from the disk during routine operations.

2007 will be remembered as the year for major operating system upgrades, as Microsoft introduces Windows Vista and Apple launches Mac OS X Leopard (see Tech Talk, October 2006). Upgrade cycles in most businesses are likely to be slow, however, as Vista will demand newer PCs for maximum performance. Microsoft has essentially created a dual-class system among PCs: "Vista Capable" PCs represent the bare minimum, while "Vista Premium Ready" PCs will be able to take full advantage of the new operating system. You can download the Vista Upgrade Advisor (www.microsoft.com/windowsvista) to determine whether your current PC makes the cut.

As Microsoft introduces Office 2007, most users will find few compelling reasons to upgrade. Meanwhile, Google's effort to take on the Office behemoth is gaining speed. Buoyed by the success of Gmail, its free e-mail service, Google recently unveiled an online word processor and spreadsheet application. However, many business users will be reluctant to store sensitive documents on Google's servers, despite the assurance of high security. On the other hand, small businesses and nonprofits may find that the price (free) and convenience of online document collaboration are worth minor privacy concerns.

In fact, Google is clearing the path for what could be the biggest development yet: an entire operating system that's Web-based. Imagine working with a bare minimum PC -- one that can start up and connect to the Internet -- and never having to buy software again. It probably won't happen this year, but the time will come, fulfilling predictions by many Google watchers.


Ken Doyle is a principal consultant for Loquent LLC, a Madison-based company that offers technology training and consulting services.

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