Unseating Abrahamson from state Supreme Court a daunting challenge

Conservatives and business groups think they have the right message for Supreme Court campaigns. The question some are debating is whether it would be a winning one against Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson.

Outside groups played a huge role in helping Burnett County Judge Michael Gableman become the first candidate in more than 40 years to knock off a sitting justice when he beat Louis Butler this spring. Gableman stressed his law-and-order credentials during the campaign and got a huge boost by outside groups, who amplified that message in a series of TV ads.

Some argue conservatives can make a similar case against Abrahamson, who often joined Butler on key court decisions and announced this spring she will seek re-election next year.

But others caution a challenge of Abrahamson would be a much different race. Unlike Butler, she's been elected and re-elected to the bench over the last three decades, has a national network to tap into as she raises money and has survived a tough race before. Besides, some point out, the feisty Abrahamson would just be tougher than Butler as a candidate.

Brandon Scholz, who ran Patience Roggensack's 2003 judicial campaign and helped Annette Ziegler in the early stages of her 2007 judicial race, also questioned whether conservative groups will view the race with the same urgency that they did the Butler campaign because of the solid majority conservatives are expected to hold onto for the near future and the expense such a challenge would cost.

In addition to Gableman's win, conservatives David Prosser, Roggensack and Ziegler have won 10-year terms of the court over the last several years.

"Unless you really have a rock-solid candidate, do you want to go to the effort to knock her out?" Scholz asked. "Do you really want to spend that $5 million?"

Veteran campaigner

Abrahamson, who signed onto many of the same Supreme Court decisions that were used against Butler in this spring's campaign, first made her way onto the court by appointment and was a first for Wisconsin justices — she the first woman on the court and Butler the first African American.

But the similarities largely end there.

Since her appointment in 1976, Abrahamson has won three 10-year terms on the bench, including a contentious 1999 race with Green Bay attorney Sharren Rose.

Until last year, that 1999 race had been the most expensive Supreme Court campaign in Wisconsin history. The two combined to raise almost $1.4 million as Abrahamson beat back the challenge by a margin of almost 2-to-1. Abrahamson raised $745,996 for that campaign.

But the costs for a Supreme Court race exploded last year as Linda Clifford and Annette Ziegler went head-to-head for an open seat with total spending coming in at an estimated $5.8 million. The candidates combined to spend almost $2.7 million of that with more than half of the money they raised coming out of their own pockets.

Outside spending

Liberals fretted Butler was waiting too long to begin raising money for this election, especially since he began 2007 with just $8,939 in his campaign account. Butler reported raising $638,668 between the beginning of 2007 and March 17 and heavily outraised Gableman. But both were drowned out by outside groups, which spent millions.

Abrahamson terminated her campaign account not long after her 1999 win, a common move for Supreme Court candidates. But she filed a registration statement with the Government Accountability Board Feb. 8 to reopen the account, and her connections give her a national network to tap into as she raises money.

Former Justice Bill Bablitch, who served in the state Legislature as a Democrat, said any incumbent on the Supreme Court has to feel more vulnerable after this spring's results because of the growing role of outside money.

Third-party groups didn't play much of a role in Abrahamson's last race, but exploded on the scene last year with an estimated $3.1 million spent. They exceeded that mark in this year's race and are expected to outspend the candidates by a margin of at least 10-to-1 when the final tallies are in.

Bablitch called Abrahamson "probably the best politician on the court" and said she can fare better in some of the Republican areas of the state where Butler lost badly. Gableman won Waukesha County with 67 percent of the vote there, Ozaukee with 68 percent and Washington 70 percent.

"With Louis getting 49 percent of the vote, it won't be a whole lot of effort for Shirley to get that extra two percent," Bablitch said.

"In the euphoria of the day after an election, there will be a lot of gleeful hand wringing and anticipation of next year. In the calm light of day, these outside parties will reassess, and they will realize that taking on Shirley, the chief justice, is a far different deal."

Far different challenge

Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce has played a key role in each of the last two Supreme Court races and was behind a series of TV ads that used Butler's nickname of "Loophole Louis" to drive home a message that he was soft on crime.

WMC Vice President James Buchen said the organization hadn't made any decisions this spring about whether to weigh in on next year's campaign. He said the group got involved in the 2007 and 2008 races because of its concerns over what he called an "activist court." But the prevailing wisdom is the court will go back to a more "traditional" role with four conservatives on the bench once Gableman is sworn in come August.

Buchen acknowledged Abrahamson has a series of strengths that make her a formidable opponent, factors that could also make it difficult to find a quality challenger.

Butler was considered the most vulnerable member of the court for a series of reasons, including the fact he had never won a statewide race before. Opponents also knew they'd have plenty of fodder to go after Butler because of a number of decisions he signed onto, as well as his past as a public defender.

Still, conservatives went through a string of judges last summer that turned down the opportunity to run against Butler. Many of those approached raised concerns about raising the needed money for the race and the tone of what they believed would be a contentious campaign. One judge declined to run, saying he wouldn't participate in what he believed would be an "attack" on the judiciary.

"For whatever set of reasons, some of these guys think it would be neat to be on the Supreme Court. They would like to do it," Buchen said. "But at the end of the day, they don't want to take on a statewide run like that."

Still, Darrin Schmitz, who served as the lead consultant on Gableman's campaign, said this spring's race changed the perception in Wisconsin that a sitting justice can't be defeated. He expected it wouldn't take long for candidates to emerge who were willing to take on Abrahamson.

"I know there are a fair amount of people within the law enforcement community who have the same concerns about the chief justice as they did with Louis Butler," Schmitz said. "Certainly one campaign, at least from my perspective, didn't start the day after one has ended, but in many respects it has for other people."