Cross Country: 2008 closes on a sour note for farmers -- here's hoping for better in 2009

John F. Oncken  —  12/31/2008 3:01 pm

2008 is gone!

Thus ends another year that we cannot change in any way in what we did -- good or bad.

Wisconsin agriculture looks back at the old year and sees major "ups" (milk income and commodity prices early on) and severe "downs" (spring flooding, commodity prices and dropping milk income at year's end).

As always, nature played a big part in the success or failure of crops (and income) on individual farms and sometimes it can be very fickle.

Last spring the rains came and came again in southern Wisconsin, covering many acres of fertile farmland that never did grow any corn, alfalfa or soybeans. Lakes appeared where lakes never were and farm ponds long forgotten came back and many acres of crops were never harvested.

After the rains stopped, they stopped for a long time and many crops and the farmers who raise them suffered again.

The result? Crop yields varied from farm to farm with some farmers reaping major yields, some harvesting short yields. In retrospect, this is how nature treats farmers most of the time. No for-sures, but a lot more than there were 40 years ago. Genetics and technology have done a lot to ensure a constant food supply.

Wisconsin cows made lots of milk in 2008, and they did it on fewer dairy farms as consolidation continued. With 13,600 dairy farms in the state -- that's 7,500 fewer than 10 years ago -- cow numbers are on the rise and California is no longer expected to take over as the "cheese state" in the near future.

So it's 2009, now what?

By and large, dairy farmers enjoyed a good year in terms of milk prices, at least for the first 11 months of 2008. But a spirit of doom and gloom prevails as they look to a falling milk price in early 2009. The outlook for the next six to eight months is full of pessimism as the cheese market has declined to near government support levels, and the dairy futures market is much the same.

The fact is, dairy farmers will be producing milk at a loss for some time as production costs exceed income. Some farmers will sell the cows and retire, others may lose the farm, most will borrow money, others may expand. All will have to devise cheaper rations and cut expenses.

Corn and soybean farmers have come back to earth as their market prices have tumbled to about half of what they were a year ago. "It was good while it lasted," a big corn grower says. "It's about time the prices came down," a dairy producer, beef farmer and hog raiser say. "We couldn't afford to buy grain to feed our stock."

2009 will again see agriculture facing pressures from outside forces.

Corporate farming is an issue that receives constant attention from some groups and is a popular subject for media stories. The fact is, almost all of Wisconsin's dairy farms are owned and farmed by families that include two and even three generations of farmers. A small farm must get bigger to allow sons and daughters to enter the business, and the corporate structure is the best way to get this done.

For those who blame all things on corporate farms, think about it. What non-farm corporation would gamble on making a profit on milking cows, considering all the unknowns like weather, animal health, uncertain prices and the hazards of dealing with animals that don't take orders very well?

Yes, dairy farms have grown in size, with dozens over 1,000 cows and one in the making that will exceed 8,000 cows, but big companies are not behind the growth.

Blame it on some very smart and progressive sons and daughters of very smart mothers and fathers who want to be farmers far into the future.

Blame it also on the Dairy Business Association and Progressive Dairy Producers of Wisconsin, two farmer-run organizations that have revitalized dairying in the last 10 years, or the University of Wisconsin and Technical Colleges that teach the basics as well as the advanced side of cow milking and managing.

Blame it on change, as farmers apply management and operational skills to get more food from fewer acres than were farmed in granddad's day.

True, there are those who blame many of the ills in agriculture (and life) on bigger farms doing bigger things. But consider, if farms were limited to raising organic food on community supported farms with hand labor, no herbicides, pesticides or big equipment, many folks would not have food to eat. Take a look as some Third World farms and see.

There will be a new president in January and Mr. Obama will do as all new presidents do -- replace all the state and national Farm Service Agency executives and top people in the U.S. Department of Agriculture. He can appoint political allies or people with ag know-how.

His appointment of former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack as Secretary of Agriculture seems favorable to most farmer groups. Being from Iowa, Vilsack must know something about farming and agriculture, but all the agricultural community wonders how he will react to the many challenges that he will face. (It's also true that food production has many divisions, few of which ever agree on what ag secretaries do.)

Don't bet on Vilsack revolutionizing farming. Can anyone remember an ag secretary who has? Maybe Henry A. Wallace -- who served under Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933-1940 -- did so, but probably more because he founded Pioneer Hybrid Seed Corn.

Please Mr. President-elect, pay serious attention to agriculture. It's still in relatively good financial health, and farmers and farm groups don't tend to run Ponzi schemes or get into the unexplainable financial troubles that Wall Street experts seem to do.

You might want to take a trip to Wisconsin, maybe to the World Dairy Expo or Farm Technology Days and meet some living, breathing farmers. We could arrange a beef or pork barbecue and have the Rock County dairy promotion group serve milk shakes. It would be best if you came unannounced so that you could talk to actual farmers, rather than all the politicians who would gather if they knew you were coming.

Another thing, you might point out in your inaugural speech that food is good for you, that steaks come from animals that are raised for that purpose, not as pets as animal rights groups seem to feel. Oh yes, you might mention that if one person is allergic to eating radishes, we need not ban radishes nationwide or that all the labels in the world won't prevent us from getting fat, wrinkled and old.

Wisconsin agriculture faces the new year with the weight of responsibility resting heavily on its shoulders: How to feed the millions of people in Wisconsin, the United States and the world who depend on us to keep the dairy cases full, the steaks in the freezer, the Wheaties on the shelf and the french fries in the little bag?

That's a major challenge for our state's milk producers, livestock farmers, grain and vegetable growers and all of the diverse farming industry that provides food, employment and life to so many.

Surely 2009 offers us the opportunity to do better than last year. It's a clean slate, and what we write on it is mostly up to us. Farmers will indeed still produce food in spite of the challenges, and consumers will still be able to get everything they want (and more) at a grocery store. And, I'll bet we won't need to stand in line or have a ration coupon to buy it.

Thanks to farmers who face nature, the government and consumers daily and keep us all healthy and well fed -- sometimes in spite of our own stupidity or ignorance in choosing what we eat.

Happy New Year.

Oncken is owner of Oncken Communications, a Madison-based agricultural information and consulting company. He can be reached at (608)222-0624.

John F. Oncken  —  12/31/2008 3:01 pm