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John Nichols: One last Clinton scenario

John Nichols  —  8/21/2008 9:39 am

This column has been pondering and predicting an Obama-Biden ticket for some time now. That's still the best bet, and now that the announcement is finally imminent, everyone is talking about it.

So, what the heck, let's run the Hillary Clinton scenario one more time:

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton like one another. Obama had Clinton's cell number on speed dial, and vice versa. They maintained stable, even good, personal relations during the primary campaign. When things got ugly, Obama stepped up several times to defend Clinton, and the senator from New York got what might have been the loudest and most sincere round of applause of the campaign when she seemed to suggest at the close of a contentious primary season debate that she would be willing to join an Obama-led "dream ticket."

But we always knew that the "what to do with Bill Clinton" challenge would steer Obama away from an easy or casual selection of Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Again and again through the primary season, it was Bill who said things that seemed to inflame the competition and move both camps to their respective corners. And, of course, there is the fundamental question of where to put an ex-president in an administration that is supposed to be all about change.

So the line became: Obama would only pick Clinton if he came to the conclusion that he needs her badly enough to accept not only his former rival but the complexities that her husband brings to the equation and, of course, their considerable baggage.

Well, the latest polls seem to suggest that Obama finds himself in a circumstance that lends itself to the Clinton consideration.

Despite the fact that the miserable state of the U.S. economy shaped by eight years of oilman budgeting should be handing the election to Obama, he's either tied or behind in a number of key state and national surveys. The new Reuters/Zogby poll has Republican John McCain leading Obama 46 percent to 41 percent. Gallup and L.A. Times surveys have it much closer, with Obama slightly up. But these are not encouraging number for the Democrats.

Russian tanks in Georgia, regime change in Pakistan and the general uncertainty about whether to worry more about a new cold war or the mismanagement of the old war on terror seems to have caused a good many Americans to edge toward McCain. That may not be reasonable, or smart or fair. But, to employ the phrase of the season, "It is what it is."

Barack Obama might just need Hillary Clinton.

Clinton, whether appropriately or not, is seen by a great many Americans as someone who knows her way around the international stage. In fact, members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who are not fans of Clinton have told me that she has far better international connections than McCain or Obama.

She also has some pretty good connections in the swing states of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Then there is the whole "dream ticket" thing.

If Obama takes the stage in front of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., Saturday with Evan Bayh at his side, it will be news -- but not very exciting news. If he does so with Joe Biden, it will be bigger news -- but it's not like Biden brings the "wow" factor.

If Obama takes the stage with Clinton at his side, it will be the dominant news story of the weekend, the convention and perhaps of the fall campaign.

Indeed, it could create that wave of excitement that Obama needs to have not just a triumphal convention but a triumphal campaign.

So that's the Hillary Clinton scenario, with all of its challenges, complexities and unpleasantness.

One does not have to like Clinton, or even believe that Clinton will ultimately join a "dream ticket," to suspect that as the Obama camp reviews the latest polls, they might be spinning the scenario one last time.

Obama and his aides may reject the option -- because of Bill, because the former first lady does not say "change," or because of concerns that a ticket made up of an African-American man and a woman might be too much change for the electorate.

But let's presume, out of respect for the savvy of the Obama team, that they are considering it.

John Nichols is associate editor of The Capital Times.

John Nichols  —  8/21/2008 9:39 am