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Election fight centers on western Wisconsin

Results could swing control of Assembly to Dems

Steven Elbow  —  5/28/2008 6:14 am

Democrats hoping to take over the state Assembly in the fall elections and Republicans hoping to hold their ground are increasingly focusing on western Wisconsin.

That is where Rep. Barbara Gronemus, a Whitehall Democrat, is giving up her 91st District seat after 26 years, and both parties think they have a shot.

In fact, it's a district that, because of its not-too-conservative and not-too-liberal political makeup, is being viewed as a bellwether for the fall elections.

According to Steven Doyle, a UW-La Crosse political science professor, residents in Gronemus' district can expect to be bombarded with negative political ads.

"Wisconsin is obviously a swing state for the presidential campaigns," said Doyle, who teaches state and local politics. "My side of the state, western Wisconsin, is the swingiest of the swing areas, so we're just going to be bombarded."

Four Democrats and three Republicans have already announced a run for the seat to replace Gronemus, who Doyle said has maintained her popularity through her status as a maverick.

"She's been able to hold the seat because she's pretty independent," he said.

Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Madison, who is leading the effort to flip the Assembly toward the Democrats for the first time in 14 years, calls the district "pretty safe," but he added, "We're going to watch it."

Republican Party of Wisconsin Executive Director Mark Jefferson said Gronemus' seat is one "we've been waiting to see open up for a number of years."

The largely rural district, made up of Buffalo, Trempealeau and parts of Pierce counties, is nestled on the western border of the state. The area lies in the politically bipolar 3rd Congressional District, which stretches along the state's western border from St. Croix County down to the Illinois state line. Democratic U.S. Rep. Ron Kind won the district in 1997 after Republican Steve Gunderson stepped down.

"The whole 3rd District here in western Wisconsin has been moving slightly Democratic," Doyle said. "That's good news for Ron Kind, but it explains why he's a moderate."

In general, Democrats this fall are likely to hammer state Republicans for being extremists, and Republicans will tag Dems as tax-and-spend liberals.

But both parties say the top of the ticket will likely carry the day in the 91st Assembly District, and just as Republicans feel that presidential candidate John McCain will bring out Republican voters, Democrats think that presumed Democratic nominee Barack Obama's popularity will draw Democrats to the polls.

Gronemus' seat is one on a growing list of open Assembly seats, and it's likely the best chance for Republicans to pick off a Democratic district.

In 2006, when 10 Republicans and one Democrat retired, Democrats were able to pick up two of their eight-seat gain from those seats. They think they may be able to pick up the three they need to gain control of the Assembly from districts where Republicans are retiring, making any incumbents they can knock off icing on the cake.

So far, 11 lawmakers— five Democrats and six Republicans—have announced that they are either stepping down or seeking other offices.

Democrats Dave Travis, D-Madison, and Frank Boyle, D-Superior, are retiring from the Assembly. Assembly Minority Leader Jim Kreuser will likely leave to become Kenosha County executive, and Rep. Sheldon Wasserman, D-Milwaukee, is seeking a state Senate seat.

Aside from Gronemus' seat, the seats held by departing Democrats appear to be solidly Democratic.

Not so for Republicans. Jefferson conceded that the 47th District seat held by Eugene Hahn, R-Cambria, which he's giving up after 18 years, "is going to be competitive."

So far, five Republicans, three Democrats and one independent have lined up for the seat, which encompasses parts of northern Dane County and southeastern Columbia County.

"We feel we've got the better candidates to match that district, and we feel we've got the upper hand there," Jefferson said.

But Pocan pointed to the fact that Hahn has been winning by ever-decreasing margins over the years, squeaking by with fewer than 200 votes in 2006 over Democratic challenger Meagan Yost, who is not running this year.

"We feel really good about that seat," Pocan said.

Democrats also think they have a shot at the Appleton area's 57th District, where Republican Steve Weickert is stepping down. Weickert held off a strong challenge from Democrat Penny Bernard Shaber in 2006, and Shaber, who has a solid political organization and has earned name recognition, is running again.

Pocan said Shaber is working hard for the seat, for which Republicans Jo Egelhoff and Peter Steuck are also vying.

"She hit 15,000 doors last time, and she's going to do it again this time," Pocan said.

Democrats also hope to capitalize on the announcement by Republican Terry Musser, R-River Falls, that he will not run again for the 92nd District. Musser, one of two moderate Republicans who will be stepping down, announced his retirement with pointed criticism of the drubbing he took from his caucus for co-sponsoring the compassionate care bill earlier this year, which requires hospitals to provide emergency contraception to rape victims.

Musser also faced an uphill battle because of his admission last year that his official biography erroneously claimed that he served with the Green Berets in Vietnam.
  
"This certainly makes it a lot more competitive," Pocan said of Musser's departure.

Also stepping down are Republicans Carol Owens of Oshkosh, Sheryl Albers of Reedsburg and moderate Sue Jeskewitz of Menomonee Falls.

Pocan sees the departure of two moderates among the Republican ranks as part of a GOP "purge" to get rid of dissenters from the Republican hard line. He says this is a strategy Republicans are undertaking at their own electoral peril.

Jefferson pointed out that the party still embraces such moderates as Terry Moulton of Chippewa Falls, Lee Nerison of Westby and Brett Davis of Oregon.

"These are people who represent their district extremely well — that no objective observer would call hard-core right-wingers," he said.

But Doyle, the UW-La Crosse professor, thinks Pocan may have a point.

"It appears that what the Republicans are saying at this point — both at the state level and the national level — is that they want to stick with their principles, and if they go down, they go down fighting."

Steven Elbow  —  5/28/2008 6:14 am