Heard this winter will be colder? Think again, says National Weather Service
The Farmers' Almanac says that another long and "numbing" winter will hit the Great Lakes region of the Midwest this year, with below-average temperatures and heavy snows.
Many have been waiting for that prediction, because the iconic publication -- around since 1818 -- stood out from the pack of weather forecasters last year in correctly predicting a long, hard winter for the Midwest with above-average snowfalls.
But the courageous souls at the National Weather Service have a different take on the coming winter.
The weather service's long-term forecast for December, January and February predicts a 50 percent chance of above-normal temperatures, a 33 percent chance to be near normal and a 17 percent chance for below normal.
"We anticipate with a fair amount of confidence that winter -- December through February -- in Wisconsin will have above-normal temperatures," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.
Precipitation, however, is up for grabs, according to Halpert, with equal possibilities for rain and snowfall being below, near or above normal. That was the center's prediction last year as well.
But Peter Geiger, editor and publisher of the Maine-based Farmers' Almanac, says the forecast is clear.
"It will be frigid, wet, wild and snowy," he said. "I don't know if there will be as much snow, but there will be a lot of snowstorms. It looks like a long winter in the Midwest."
Geiger, who started editing the publication in 1995 following a 60-year run by his father, predicts heavy snow for Wisconsin from Dec. 8-11 and from Dec. 24-27. January through March will also have cold and snowy spells, he said.
"Last year we said the Midwest and Northeast would get pounded, and they did," said Geiger, noting that the National Weather Service's prediction erred on that score.
Yet, Rusty Kapela, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sullivan, Wis., doubts that the snow level will equal last year's record-breaking performance.
"We had an incredibly snowy winter last year, so the odds of having a repeat are very slim," Kapela said. "We looked back at the record books, and going back to the late 1800s, southern Wisconsin never had two winters in a row with 90 or 100 inches. It is possible, but not likely."
Of course, he noted, even if Madison had 75 inches of snow, it would still be above the 50-inch average, though much below the 101 inches the area saw last year.
The computer models used by the Weather Service are based on long-term statistics -- the previous 30 years of weather patterns as well as the past few months.
"Given the weather situation of the past three to five months, the fall and winter average out above normal," Kapela said.
"Last winter it was only 1 or 2 degrees below normal for December through February. That was not drastically colder," Kapela added. "We had some periods of cold weather but also some mild periods in between snowstorms. It is possible to have above-normal temperatures and a snowy winter or a cold winter with very little snow. It depends on the temperature when a snowstorm hits, whether it can stay all snow."
The Farmers' Almanac bases its forecasts on a mathematical formula put together in the 1800s that is used in combination with sunspots, planet positions and the impact of the moon on the Earth. Predictions are made two years in advance, Geiger said.
He says followers swear the almanac is 80 to 85 percent accurate, but he himself does not track the record.
"It is a great math project that teachers do sometimes," Geiger said.
His rival publication, the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac, which has been published since 1792, would not release an accuracy record, but claims it's right 80 percent of the time.
Editor Janice Stillman said she expects a mild November in most of Wisconsin, but a deep freeze in December of about 11 degrees below normal. January will be 5 to 8 degrees above normal and February slightly above average, she said.
She also predicts below-normal amounts of rain and snowfall.
Last year's prediction by the Old Farmers Almanac of near-normal snowfall and slightly warmer temperatures was off the mark, Stillman conceded.
"We fell off last year in some parts of the Midwest," she said. "The sunspot cycle lasted longer than expected." The Old Farmers Almanac bases its predictions on solar activity, the scientific study of climate and the study of the atmosphere.
Halpert of the national Climate Prediction Center noted that last winter in Wisconsin was affected by La Nina, a cooling of waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that affects the jet stream, which then carries cold and precipitation over the United States to the Midwest.
"Last year La Nina favored storms with a lot of precipitation," Halpert said. "This year there is not a strong trend."
And the majority of Wisconsin winters in the past 10 years have been warmer than average.
"Obviously there has been a warming trend the past couple decades," said Kapela. "But there have been ups and downs going back to the 1800s. It is possible that this trend may continue, but we don't know for sure. We do know that some winters will be cold and snowy, and others mild with more rain."
aweier@madison.com
Lisa Nelson illustration
