Lobbyists make new friends with Assembly Democrats

Steven Elbow  —  4/30/2008 7:50 pm

When Pedro Colon joined the state Assembly in 1998, Republicans ruled the roost, and meet-and-greet events organized by Democrats for lobbyists were lonely affairs.

But things are changing.

"I can tell you in the last four years, the room's gone from like two lobbyists to in the 20s," says Colon, a Democrat from Milwaukee who now sits on the influential Joint Finance Committee.

"Their stock has risen, if you will, among the lobbying corps," says Colon of his caucus members.

Two years ago Democrats won control of the state Senate and picked up eight seats in the Assembly. After 14 years in the minority, they have a shot this fall at picking up the three seats they need to take Assembly control.

That has lobbyists knocking on unfamiliar doors.

Rep. Terese Berceau, D-Madison, for instance, says lobbyists she's never met before have recently sought her out.

"Before they would have figured there's no particular purpose in talking," she says.

If historical patterns apply, the pendulum could be swinging toward the Democratic side of the aisle. During the "Republican Revolution" of 1995, Republicans took control of both houses in Congress, threw Democrats out of leadership positions in state houses across the country and ended a 24-year Democratic reign in the Wisconsin Assembly. Since then, Republicans have held sway, but Democrats think their time is up.

"We feel that this is a Democratic year," says Rep. Mark Pocan of Madison, who will be heading up the Democratic effort to win back the Assembly.

Democrats had the highest turnout in decades for this past spring's presidential primary, and the political landscape looks good for Democrats nationally, Pocan says. He sees state Democrats this fall riding a wave of dissatisfaction with Republican rule.

But winning control of the Assembly is by no means a slam-dunk for Democrats. As Berceau puts it, "Democrats can always blow things."

But she says Democrats' chances are good enough that lobbyists are going to play it safe: "They're at least going to play both sides of the fence."

Although Assembly Democrats say lobbying efforts have been heavily tilted toward majority Republicans, it's difficult to find a lobbyist who will admit to ever having snubbed a Democrat.

Even Jim Pugh, spokesman for Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce, whose political arm contributes almost exclusively to Republican candidates, claims his group pays attention to both sides of the aisle.

"We bring our agenda to everybody," says Pugh. "We've got lobbyists at the Capitol all the time. They talk to people every day."

Chet Gerlach, a former Democratic state representative who lobbies for the Association of Wisconsin Tourism, Sprint Nextel Corp. and State Farm Insurance, also says nothing has changed for him.

"I try to maintain good working relationships with both parties and people in both houses," he says.

But Gerlach says he has noticed other lobbyists shifting their focus.

"I can see that some of my colleagues are spending more time with the Democrats."

Mark Grapentine, Wisconsin Medical Society senior vice president for government relations, thinks it might be a little premature to predict a Democratic takeover in the Assembly, especially in light of the recent election of Judge Michael Gableman, a previously unknown conservative who ousted Justice Louis Butler with the help of millions of dollars from Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce and other Republican-aligned groups.

But it makes sense to change with the political winds, he says: "There's certain things you push depending on who's in charge."

Rep. Joe Parisi, D-Madison, says he's already seen a shift since the Democrats picked up several seats in 2006.

"The Republicans had a much slimmer grip on the majority, so more people had to deal with us, and more lobbyists would try to contact us," he says. "I've never been in the majority, but I would imagine if that's where we end up, we're going to be hearing from a lot of people we haven't heard from in the past."

As the election season shapes up, Parisi says, Democrats looking for jobs might be a hot commodity because of their political party ties.

"I think you're going to see lobbying organizations looking for more former (legislative) Democrats to hire, or people who have worked in Democratic circles," he says. "It's kind of the same thing that happens in D.C. when people sense a sea change."

The battle for the Assembly will hinge on races that promise to be close, and Republican leaders aren't putting up the white flag just yet. In fact, they're setting their sights on picking up a few seats themselves.

State Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus thinks Republican candidates will ride the coattails of Sen. John McCain, the expected Republican presidential nominee, and win back at least some of the seats lost in 2006.

"We feel really good on those districts coming back and picking a few of those off because of the fact that it's a presidential year," he says.

Mark Jefferson, longtime state Assembly campaign director for the Republican Party of Wisconsin and now the group's executive director, says seats narrowly won by Democrats two years ago in traditionally Republican districts are ripe for the picking. These include District 43, where Kim Hixson of Whitewater knocked off Debi Towns by only a handful of votes, and District 88, where Green Bay Democrat Jim Soletski beat Judy Krawczyk by fewer than 100.

Jefferson says the odds are on the GOP's side. Democrats, he notes, haven't picked up Assembly seats in a presidential cycle since 1988, and until 2006 lost seats in every election since 1990 -- that's seven elections in a row.

And this year, he says, Republicans will be running without the top-of-the-ticket drag of President George W. Bush.

"George Bush was on the ballot in 2006, whether or not he was actually on the ballot," Jefferson says.

"This time around every credible poll shows that McCain and Obama are neck-and-neck," adds Jefferson, assuming that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will prevail over challenger Hillary Clinton. "So you're not going to see us having to run against the tide as much as we had to in the past. Although it's going to be a challenging year, it's going to be a competitive year."

Rep. Mark Pocan is similarly upbeat about his party's prospects this fall.

"We're feeling good," he says. "Not overconfident, but good."

To get the three seats they need to win the Assembly, Democrats are looking at 22 Assembly seats now held by Republicans in districts where Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle won a majority of the vote in 2006, Pocan says. Democratic contenders have already been recruited for 12 of these districts.

Those on the Democratic hit list include Rep. Brett Davis of Oregon, who narrowly won re-election in 2006, and Karl van Roy of Green Bay. The Dems will also run an aggressive campaign in Cambria, where Eugene Hahn, a Republican, is stepping down after 18 years in the legislature. He barely held on to his seat in 2006.

Also stepping down are Republicans Carol Owens of Oshkosh and Steve Wieckert of Appleton, and Democrats Barbara Gronemus of Whitehall, Dave Travis of Madison and Frank Boyle of Superior.

Assembly Minority Leader Jim Kreuser will also likely leave to become Kenosha County executive. As of the April 15 filing deadline, Kreuser was unopposed for the job. So far, Republican Jeffery Cassity of Kenosha is the only candidate who has filed to run for Kreuser's Assembly seat.

The bottom line, several political observers say, is that with so many open seats in play and the slim margins that decided key races in 2006, control of the Assembly won't be decided until election day.

Until then, more lobbyists are likely to cozy up to legislators on both sides of the aisle.

"We're well-placed to be really competitive and probably come through in November," Milwaukee legislator Colon says. "The lobbyists -- it's their business to understand this."

Steven Elbow  —  4/30/2008 7:50 pm