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Election Matters: Will McCain pull out of Wisconsin?

A daily political briefing from John Nichols/The Capital Times

John Nichols  —  10/07/2008 12:16 pm

Tuesday, Oct. 7

Calendar: Election Day is four weeks from today

Next big presidential campaign event

Tuesday night's second presidential debate

Time: 8 p.m. Central

Moderator: Tom Brokaw

Location: Belmont University, Nashville, Tenn.

Format: Two-minute answers, followed by one-minute discussion for each question

The Line: Obama's ahead in the polls. McCain needs a "game changer." The Republican says he will be more aggressive. Watch for this debate to feature the roughest attacks and the most aggressive exchanges between the candidates.

Here's where to find "transcripts" of the first presidential debate and the vice presidential debate.

Next candidate visit to Wisconsin

John McCain/Sarah Palin in Waukesha at the Center Court Sports Complex, 815 Northview Blvd

When: Thursday, Oct. 9; doors open at 9:30 a.m.

Closest place to get tickets: Waukesha Victory Center 1701 Pearl St., Waukesha

Quote of the day

"I was elected to represent the best interests of working families in Wisconsin, not tycoons on Wall Street. We have seen so many people lose their jobs and struggle just to keep their heads above water. This bill would have been no help to them." -- U.S. Rep. Steve Kagen, D-Appleton, on why he opposed the Wall Street bailout.

The big question: Will McCain pull out of Wisconsin?

There's something strange about the venue for Thursday's visit to Wisconsin by Republican candidates John McCain and Sarah Palin. They are scheduled to campaign in the traditional Republican heartlands of Waukesha County, as opposed to the swing areas of western and northeastern Wisconsin. Is the McCain-Palin visit part of a new strategy for winning Wisconsin or a parting shot?

Consider this: The McCain-Palin campaign announced on the eve of last week's vice presidential debate that it was pulling staff and resources out of Michigan, a supposed swing state where both McCain and Obama have focused much of his energy since securing their respective party nominations earlier this year.

A state that neighbors Wisconsin and has many of the same demographic and political realities, Michigan was expected to be a battleground to the end. Now McCain has given up on it, and the most popular theory is that his campaign is focusing in on states that George Bush won in 2004, as well as New Hampshire -- a swing state where McCain has long been personally popular.

Wisconsin, a state that has not backed a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984 nor favored a Republican candidate for the presidency by a higher percentage than the national Republican lean since the  1960s, is still listed as a battleground state. But here's a bit of polling data to ponder:

Like Michigan, Wisconsin is now rated as leaning toward Obama in most major surveys. And the very good Web site, www.pollster.com, has a current polling trend estimate of 48.4 percent for Obama to 43.6 percent for McCain. In Michigan, the current polling trend estimate is 48.9 percent for Obama to 43.8 percent for McCain.

The www.realclearpolitics.com average of polls in Michigan prior to the McCain campaign's decision to pull out of that state had Obama ahead of McCain by 7 percentage points. The pattern of recent polls had tended to show a widening Obama lead, undoubtedly a reflection of concern about worsening economic conditions in a traditional manufacturing state that is facing serious layoffs of autoworkers.

The www.realclearpolitics.com average of polls in Wisconsin for the same period has Obama up by 5 percentage points, with the pattern of recent polls showing a widening Obama lead similar to what has been seen in Michigan.

If the McCain campaign drops back from Wisconsin, it won't make the same mistake as it did when it announced the dialing down of efforts in Michigan. But keep an eye out to see how many visits by the presidential candidate are scheduled in coming days and weeks. If he is not in the state again this week and then once more next week, bet that an exit strategy is in play.

Here's a good sum-up of: recent polling.

Pundit watch:

Here's the latest on the presidential race from former White House political czar Karl Rove.

Putting poverty on the debate agenda: The anti-poverty group Bread for the World is pressing the two candidates to make a clear commitment to fighting domestic and global poverty in Tuesday's debate.

"In the first debate, no one even mentioned poor people," said the Rev. David Beckmann, a former World Bank economist who now serves as president of Bread for the World. "Our current economic problems have hit poor people very hard, and the presidential candidates have two different responses in mind. But children who are not getting enough to eat are also not getting enough attention in this election."

In Nashville, Beckmann and other anti-poverty leaders expressed concern that a tight focus on the crisis in financial markets will cause candidates -- and the media -- to neglect life-and-death issues of poverty, hunger and homelessness.

"Hunger and poverty are on the increase but we are preoccupied with our own anxieties. We may feel less inclined to help people in need in our own communities, let alone on the other side of the world," explained Beckmann.

Here's more on Bread for the World's project.

Issue the candidates won't debate Tuesday

Barack Obama and John McCain are pretty much agreed on the need for a deeper commitment of U.S. forces to the quagmire in Afghanistan.

The U.S. candidates should be listening to the departing commander of British forces in that country. UK Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith tells The Times of London that victory over the resurgent Taliban is "neither feasible nor supportable."

"We're not going to win this war," explained Brigadier Carleton-Smith, the outgoing leader of an essential allied force on the ground. "It's about reducing insurgency to a manageable level that's not a strategic threat."

Here is the full story on the mess that Afghanistan has become.

Here's another important piece on the British assessment of Afghanistan conundrum.

John Nichols  —  10/07/2008 12:16 pm