Ed Garvey: Election polls galore -- who do you trust?

Ed Garvey  —  7/29/2008 10:21 am

I had never heard of Quinnipiac University until the primary between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama moved to Ohio. Suddenly the talking heads on TV focused on the Quinnipiac poll as if they had found the Holy Grail. Finally, a poll we could trust.

Now, Quinnipiac issues poll results all the time on a variety of issues and talking heads pay attention.

Quinnipiac has become ubiquitous. Obama leads in Wisconsin 50-39, down a few points; McCain's leading in Colorado; Obama's losing ground in Michigan; 54 percent oppose gay marriage -- as Vonegut would say, "and so it goes."

Do something John McCain cannot do. Google Quinnipiac. I did and I learned it is nonsectarian, private and located in Hamden, Conn. That's about it. They do brag that the polling institute is "known for its exactness and thoroughness" but forgot to say by whom.

There isn't much more, although I did find that the law school (who knew?) is moving up. Last year U.S. News & World Report said the Quinnipiac law school was No. 116 in the country but now it is 108. Huzzah! Now, ask yourself, what in the world does the U.S. News determination mean and I suspect you will say that it matters not. But if Quinnipiac boasts its law school is almost in the top 100, it may give insight into the Quinnipiac story.

The Quinnipiac Web site shows lots of beautiful pictures of colored leaves and nice buildings but little more. Polling? Can't tell much from its Web site. Do they know anything about it? Are they ranked, like the law school, 108 in polling but moving up? Who trains the callers and who frames the questions? Who contributes to the school and do they have a bias? And who decides when to release poll results or to kill them altogether? I'd like to know who pays the bills.

When Quinnipiac issues the latest poll, lots of people in the media simply cover the results as if Lou Harris or Gallup had conducted the poll. We have known about Gallup since they got the Dewey-Truman race all wrong. But they learned. Who is checking the record of Quinnipiac?

Quinnipiac covers the horse race aspect of politics but also issues polls on gay marriage. Who asked them to inform us? Before carrying another Quinnipiac poll result, could someone find out if they are brilliant, moronic, more often off the mark than on, funded by Rupert Murdoch ... you get the drift.

Here in Wisconsin, if you can't afford to hire some outfit to poll for your group, you can, for a price, get a local communications company to add your question(s) to someone else's poll. Who has access to the results? (The company is currently promoting a series of meetings around the state suggesting that property taxes are too high. What will be released if 89 percent of us think they are too high because the business sector isn't paying its fair share? Will we find out?)

The questions I posed for Quinnipiac should be asked. Are you ranked? If so, by whom? Who decides to keep unwanted results from the public and what results are "unwanted"?

While I am at it, who looks at St. Norbert or Badger polling to see if they have a good, bad or so-so record of predictions?

But even more troubling, do the polls determine the results? If candidate X is 40 points behind, according to Quinnibadger (a mythical pollster), does he or she drop out? Spend more money? Or find that raising money is nearly impossible because contributors prefer to go with winners or perceived winners?

I don't have the answer but I'll be damned if I will sit up and take notice when Chris Matthews tells us about the latest Quinnipiac results.

And 72 percent of you agree with me. How do I know? My most recent poll.

Ed Garvey is a Madison lawyer, political activist and the editor of the fightingbob.com Web site.

Ed Garvey  —  7/29/2008 10:21 am