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Milewski: Winning opener would be huge for Badgers

Todd D. Milewski  —  3/14/2008 6:36 am

ST. CLOUD, Minn. -- History reveals a critical element of what the University of Wisconsin men's hockey team faces tonight.

If the Badgers don't win Game 1 of their best-of-three Western Collegiate Hockey Association series against St. Cloud State, they'll not only have the weight of an elimination game pushing on them, they'll also be trying to navigate down a rarely traveled path.

In 20 years since the WCHA started playing best-of-three series in the first round of the playoffs, only one road team has won the series after losing the first game. That was Denver, which rallied to oust North Dakota in 1989.

Of the 69 other series in which the home team has won the first game, it has been a sweep 60 times.

The nature of the WCHA regular season suggests that anything can happen this postseason, but Wisconsin no doubt would be better served not having to overcome a deficit.

"I think it's like scoring the first goal -- the percentages are in your favor," Badgers coach Mike Eaves said of the importance of Game 1. "There's no reason why we shouldn't be ready to go out there and dictate. We've got guys that return from last year that have the experience of going on the road and playing like we need to. That's our task at hand."

The Badgers swept Denver on the road in the opening round of last season's WCHA playoffs -- only the eighth road sweep in 95 first-round series since 1988 -- behind the hot goaltending of senior Brian Elliott. Nine UW players that skated in that series are expected to be in the lineup tonight as the Badgers try to duplicate that success and give their NCAA tournament hopes a big lift.

Eaves said those returning players have identified to the coaching staff some of the elements of preparation that worked last season. He called them only emotional energizers, saying the full explanation stays within the locker room walls.

Overall, 88 percent of Game 1 winners have won the series. The road team has advanced 60 percent of the time after winning the opener.

Given the opponent, a UW victory tonight might not be the beacon that it usually is.

Last season, St. Cloud State lost the first game to Minnesota-Duluth at home, then won Games 2 and 3 in overtime to advance to the Final Five.

The Huskies have something of a three-game mentality when it comes to the playoffs, coach Bob Motzko said. They've been to a deciding game in the first round in each of Motzko's two previous seasons in St. Cloud.

"We don't put any emphasis on any one game, but the fact that you've got to win two," Motzko said.

Whichever team does will be in good position for an NCAA spot. The other will have some nervous time on its hands.

"We have lots to play for," Eaves said, "and this is the fun time of the year."

Around the league: It's hard to see a seventh seed as a favorite against a fourth seed, but it's also difficult to picture Minnesota as an underdog this weekend at Minnesota State.

The Gophers haven't lost to the Mavericks since Nov. 8, 2002, a span of 20 meetings. Minnesota earned its only league series sweep this season in a home-and-home set with the team just a short ride down Highway 169.

Meanwhile, the Colorado schools will be looking to make the Final Five for the first time since 2005, with each trying to avoid a third straight home-ice exit from the league playoffs.

Regular season champion Colorado College hosts Alaska Anchorage, and third-seeded Denver hosts Minnesota-Duluth.

"For both programs, it's a big deal," CC coach Scott Owens told reporters after the Tigers completed a sweep of the Pioneers last Saturday. "As strong as we've been over the years, we haven't been there. I've only got seniors that have been there. The other kids don't even know what it's like to go there, which, for us for a number of years was a given."

Three-way call: When St. Cloud State entered overtime of its regular season finale against North Dakota last Saturday, it had three playoff scenarios attached to the three possible outcomes.

A victory would have brought Minnesota to the National Hockey Center. A loss would have sent St. Cloud State to the Kohl Center to play the Badgers.

The draw, earned when leading scorer Ryan Lasch knotted the game with under three minutes remaining in regulation, gave St. Cloud State a home series with Wisconsin and a top-half finish in the league standings for the second straight year after four seasons of being in the second division.

"Whatever scenario turned out, the next weekend to me was all the same," Motzko said. "I guess if we have to pick, I'd sure rather pick being at home than going on the road, but I don't know if it makes our weekend any easier."

All-league picks: For the record, my all-WCHA first team ballot included forwards Chad Rau of Colorado College, Lasch of St. Cloud State and T.J. Oshie of North Dakota; defensemen Jack Hillen of CC and Chay Genoway of North Dakota; and goaltender Richard Bachman of CC.

Bachman was my choice for player of the year and rookie of the year, and Owens got my vote as the top coach.

UW MEN'S HOCKEY

Who: No. 13 University of Wisconsin (15-14-7) vs. No. 9 St. Cloud State (17-14-5) in a best-of-three Western Collegiate Hockey Association first-round playoff series

When: Today, Saturday and Sunday, if necessary, 7 p.m.

Where: National Hockey Center, St. Cloud, Minn.

TV: None

Radio: WIBA-AM/1310

All eyes on

Wisconsin: Sophomore winger Michael Davies (11 goals, 20 points) rides a career-high five-game point streak into the playoffs. He had a goal and two assists in Wisconsin's split against St. Cloud State two weeks ago.

St. Cloud State: Sophomore winger Ryan Lasch (23 goals, 48 points) won the WCHA scoring title with 34 points in 28 league games.

Points to ponder

Playoff push: Wisconsin junior goaltender Shane Connelly has appeared in only one collegiate playoff game, winning last season's WCHA Final Five third-place game against St. Cloud State, but his statistics from juniors show a trend of playoff improvement. With Chicago of the United States Hockey League in 2004, when he had a 2.51 goals against average and a .917 save percentage in the regular season, he put up 1.71 and .952 figures in the postseason. A year later, he improved his GAA from 2.99 to 2.10 and his save percentage from .911 to .932.

The series: Wisconsin is 3-4 against St. Cloud State in the postseason. The Badgers won a 1992 playoff series in three games, lost a 1994 semifinal game, were swept in a 1999 series and won the third-place game last season.

No margin for error: The Badgers and the Huskies have played six straight games decided by one goal or less dating to a 2-2 tie at the Kohl Center on Feb. 17, 2007. Wisconsin was undefeated in 14 games against St. Cloud State before the Huskies earned a 3-2 victory on March 1.

Nine at two: St. Cloud State has allowed two goals or fewer in each of its last nine games. That's the longest streak this season for a WCHA team. North Dakota is second with a seven-game streak it carries into the playoffs.

Projected UW lineup: Forwards -- Blake Geoffrion-Kyle Turris-Davies; John Mitchell-Ben Street-Patrick Johnson; Matthew Ford-Sean Dolan-Ben Grotting; Andy Bohmbach-Aaron Bendickson-Podge Turnbull. Defensemen -- Davis Drewiske-Kyle Klubertanz; Ryan McDonagh-Jamie McBain; Josh Engel-Cody Goloubef. Goaltenders -- Shane Connelly, Scott Gudmandson.

Todd D. Milewski  —  3/14/2008 6:36 am