UW women's basketball: From NCAA hopeful to WNIT bubble
A sense of purpose and intensity were missing in the University of Wisconsin women's basketball team as it made an abrupt exit at the Big Ten Conference tournament.
The Badgers will learn tonight if they get an opportunity to make amends.
While UW's NCAA tournament dreams were almost certainly killed due to a listless 73-58 first-round setback to Illinois on March 6 at the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis, the team remains in the mix for a second straight Women's National Invitation Tournament appearance.
That's not the expected destination for the Badgers, who returned every player from last year's squad and added three freshmen to the roster. They were picked to finish second by league coaches, but cobbled together a 16-13 overall record and tied for seventh place in the Big Ten with a 9-9 mark.
Wisconsin had two main objectives: finishing in the top half of the league and earning an NCAA berth. The first didn't happen, and the second likely won't. What went wrong? In no particular order, here are five factors:
** League limp: UW started 1-6 in the conference, with four of those losses occurring on the road. In addition, the Badgers lost four straight in mid-January.
** Oh, so close: The Badgers had a tough time finishing close games. They lost three overtime games, with those setbacks determined by six or fewer points. They wound up with a 4-4 record in games decided by five or fewer points.
** Slow start, fizzling finish: The Badgers were lethargic at the start of many games. Late in games they often played not to lose, committing turnovers and having defensive breakdowns at critical junctures.
** Post problems: UW never found a consistent presence in its post positions. Freshmen Tara Steinbauer and Lin Zastrow showed potential; Zastrow, in particular, emerged with strong efforts in the latter part of the season. Sophomore Mariah Dunham, who dealt with some personal issues, never got into a rhythm. Senior Danielle Ward had some strong games, but was plagued with foul problems.
** Start them up: Zastrow and freshmen point guard Alyssa Karel had solid performances in a handful of games. Inserting those rookies in the starting lineup earlier in the season might have built confidence and helped the Badgers down the stretch.
Meanwhile, even a potential WNIT bid could depend upon on how many Big Ten teams get the chance to dance in the NCAA tournament.
Purdue clinched its invite with a Big Ten tournament championship and will host first- and second-round games, and Ohio State and Iowa also are in since the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes shared the regular-season league title.
It remains to be seen if other Big Ten teams get in, but pundits contend Minnesota and Michigan State, which finished third and fifth in the standings, respectively, warrant consideration.
This much is known: The NCAA invited only three Big Ten teams last season (Ohio State, Purdue and Michigan State). Four teams received Women's NIT berths, including Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana and the Badgers, who won four games in the tournament and reached the title game before losing at Wyoming.
NCAA tournament berths will be unveiled tonight at 6 with live coverage on ESPN. Several hours later, WNIT officials will make known their 48-team bracket, which includes 31 automatic bids (one for each conference, awarded to the team with the top league record that did not receive an NCAA bid) and 17 at-large berths.
WNIT director Renee Carlson indicated that there is no set quota as to how many teams in any one conference can be selected to the tournament. She said Wisconsin is on WNIT officials' radar.
"We are considering them," Carlson said. "We're aware of Wisconsin's strong run in the WNIT last season, but it doesn't factor in when considering this year's bracket. They have strong numbers and factors to state on its own this year."
UW administrators submitted bids to host up to six rounds of the tournament, and Wisconsin could possibly host a first-round game Thursday night at the 8, 557-seat UW Fieldhouse. Any and all games hosted by the Badgers would be played at the UW Fieldhouse, as opposed to their home court at the Kohl Center.
Wisconsin, which resumed practice Wednesday to prepare for an anticipated postseason berth, is No. 67 in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), a formula used by the NCAA tournament selection committee that measures a team's relative strength. While victories and locations of games factor into the RPI formula, margin of victory is not an element of consideration. Though its strength of schedule rating is 43rd among 338 Division I programs, Wisconsin likely lost any chance of an NCAA bid with their loss to the Illini in the league tournament.
A signature victory often will warrant scrutiny by NCAA and WNIT selection committees. The Badgers' only win of that nature during the 2007-08 season was a 59-57 road win against Minnesota, a team with a No. 35 ranking in the RPI system.
