UW men's hockey: Badgers still have hope for NCAA bid

Todd D. Milewski  —  3/19/2008 7:57 am

Mike Eaves is keeping a list of ways his University of Wisconsin men's hockey team can be one of the at-large teams selected for the NCAA tournament.

It started with a set of scenarios involving the four conference tournaments that will be played between Thursday and Saturday, and how they can fall out to put the Badgers high enough in the rankings to hear their name called on Sunday's selection show.

"And then the next day I'll get another call and, 'Well, here's another one,' " Eaves said. "OK, thank you."

It started with one page. Eaves has since moved on to a second sheet.

That might not be as much a signal of what kind of chance the Badgers have as much as a sign that there are a variety of ways that the final 16 games can play out and have things go UW's way.

In short, Wisconsin, which was knocked out of the Western Collegiate Hockey Association playoffs last weekend, not only still can get into the tournament, it can be a third seed in the four-team Midwest Regional at the Kohl Center and avoid playing one of the top four teams in the first round.

"There's scenarios, and things have to fall into place," Eaves said. "I think with any kind of hope, you have to hold onto that. Even if it's a sliver, you have to work toward that. As we thought about what we wanted to do this week, no matter if it's 1 percent or 95 percent, we have to work with the hope that we have."

Because the tournament selection process is transparent and mimicked by the PairWise Rankings published on multiple Web sites, the Badgers know where they stand -- in the 14th position when it appears at most the top 13 will get in.

New scenarios that would move the UW up in the rankings and get it in the tournament continue to trickle in as they're found through online PairWise predictors that allow users to see the rankings after picking winners of the remaining games.

Here are a few:

** Notre Dame loses twice in the CCHA tournament. Princeton wins the ECAC tournament. Vermont and Boston University don't gain the Hockey East automatic bid by winning the tournament, and Northern Michigan doesn't win the CCHA.

** Notre Dame beats Miami in the CCHA semifinals but loses the title game to Michigan. Northern Michigan beats Miami in the CCHA third-place game. Minnesota wins at least two games at the WCHA Final Five. Princeton wins the ECAC. Vermont and BU don't win the Hockey East.

** Notre Dame loses to Miami in the semis, then ties Northern Michigan. Miami beats Michigan for the CCHA title. Colgate beats Harvard in the ECAC final and Princeton beats Cornell for third. New Hampshire wins Hockey East.

There are also ways the Badgers can move up to 12th in the PairWise, putting them in line for a No. 3 seed. One such example:

** Northern Michigan beats Notre Dame in the CCHA third-place game. Princeton wins the ECAC. Minnesota either wins twice or gets a tie in the WCHA third-place game. Vermont doesn't win the Hockey East title.

"You can drive yourself nuts," Badgers assistant captain Ben Street said. "That's why you've kind of got to take a step back and just go, 'OK, leave it alone now.' Because it gets a little ridiculous when you go, 'Well, what if this happens and this happens and this happens.' It gets a little bit out of control, so you've just got to let it play its course."

If the Badgers make the tournament, they'll make history. No team with a losing record has been picked as an at-large team under the current format.

Only three teams have ever entered the tournament with more losses than wins: Alabama-Huntsville earned the College Hockey America automatic bid last season, and Minnesota (1971) and Colorado College (1978) got in as WCHA playoff co-champions.

Under a subjective system, the 15-16-7 Badgers probably wouldn't have much of a chance with the committee.

But committee chair Joel Maturi, the athletic director at Minnesota and a former associate athletic director at Wisconsin, said the committee won't deviate from the numbers to discriminate against a sub-.500 team.

"The numbers determine which teams are selected for the tournament," Maturi said. "We have never in my time -- and it's my understanding we will not start this year -- look at any other basic criteria."

The Badgers are going through practice this week based on the hope that things will go their way and they'll have another game to play. But it'll be a nervous weekend of watching.

"We've got a lot riding on this weekend," Street said. "We realize that we've done what we can do so far, so it's out of our control. But at the same time, if it gets into overtime or something, we're going to be on the edge of our seats."

Todd D. Milewski  —  3/19/2008 7:57 am