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Lucas: It's tough to bet against Memphis

Mike Lucas  —  4/07/2008 8:09 am

After watching his players brick more free throws (17) than they made (15) in a 77-74 win over Mississippi State in the second round of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, a defiant John Calipari refused to dwell on that seemingly vulnerable element of his "Dream Team." That three-point verdict still stands as the smallest margin of victory over the last 12 games for the Tigers, dating to Feb. 23 and their only loss of the season to Tennessee. And that's why Calipari continued to insist, "The free throws we need to make, we'll make."

Since that close call against Mississippi State, the Tigers have justified Calipari's confidence in their free-throw shooting by making 74 percent (26-of-35), 83 percent (30-of-36) and 87 percent (20-of-23) in their last three victories over Michigan State (92-74), Texas (85-67) and UCLA (78-63), respectively. In those routs, they have outscored their opponents by a combined 46 points from the line -- not that they needed those points, since they have been so dominant in every other facet of their game. Will that be the case again tonight when Memphis and Kansas play for the national championship? "I'll be honest with you," Calipari said on March 27, "whether it's us or North Carolina or Kansas or UCLA; free throw shooting could play a part in anybody's game, now, not just ours." Fair enough.

Question is, can the Jayhawks make free throw relevant to the outcome? Can they put the free throw line into play? Do they want to? As a team, Kansas is shooting just 66 percent in the NCAA tourney and has been outscored 67-54 from the line. By sharp contrast, the Tigers are not only converting on 70 percent of their free throws, they have taken twice as many as their opponents (161 to 80) through the first five games, including the Mississippi State debacle. Moreover, they also shot better than 70 percent from the line in their three Conference USA tournament games; again lending support to Calipari's argument. "I have mentally tough kids," he said Sunday. "If they're relaxed, they're going to make free throws."

No matter what you think of Calipari and his Memphis program, you have to give him credit for assembling this high-octane, highly-skilled team, what he has anointed as his Dream Team. Two of his most important components are freshman point guard Derrick Rose from Chicago and junior shooting guard Chris Douglas-Roberts from Detroit. Reportedly, those two cities are within the Big Ten footprint. Rose picked Memphis over Illinois and Indiana. Douglas-Roberts picked Memphis over Arizona, Georgia Tech, and Ohio State, among others. Michigan State and Michigan were not on his short list because neither the Spartans nor the Wolverines saw him as a "big-time" college recruit.

Do you think maybe the Big Ten might have a higher national profile today with Rose, Douglas-Roberts and Kansas guard Sherron Collins (a Chicago Crane product who also snubbed the Illini)? "I just felt if you want to be a national program, you have to recruit nationally," Calipari explained of his recruiting philosophy. It doesn't stop with recruiting and landing great players, though. "The challenge is to get them to play together," Calipari went on. "The second challenge is to get them to accept roles. The other challenge is to get them to accept how we're gonna play."

That's what appealed to Douglas-Roberts: the Tigers' wide-open style of play (as opposed to the smash-football that's generally played in the Big Ten). How would Calipari describe what Memphis does? "This offense is geared to all four perimeter guys being able to start the offense and some of it is scripted," he said during his Sunday news conference in San Antonio, Texas. "That's why I say it's like Princeton on steroids. It's just faster. Some of it is free-flowing, based on where the guys want to drive."

Some of it was illustrated during one of the defining moments in Saturday's semifinal triumph over UCLA. Rose set up Douglas-Roberts with a bounce pass on the baseline and Douglas-Roberts dunked over freshman Kevin Love. That seemed to break the Bruins' spirit, assuming that they still had some. "You saw the backdoor (to Douglas-Roberts) that basically finished the game, I thought, when he dunked that ball," Calipari agreed. "That was a scripted play. We pitch, we drive, boom ..." We flush.

To a large degree, Kansas can also play that game; potentially making for some entertaining basketball tonight in the Alamo Dome. At least one observer, ESPN analyst Bob Knight, wondered if the Jayhawks expended too much energy during their roller-coaster ride over North Carolina in Saturday's other semifinal game. In his new television role, the informative Knight has been the voice of reason throughout the tournament, nicely offsetting the babble from Digger Phelps. Knight has shown his engaging side. To this end, you tend to buy into what Knight is saying.

In 1987, Indiana outlasted Nevada Las-Vegas 97-93 in the semifinals before moving on to beat Syracuse 74-73 in the finals. Knight related how he was so concerned about fatigue that he didn't practice between the two games, choosing instead to allow his players to conserve their energy. Knight suggested that Kansas could also be dealing with fatigue against Memphis after extending itself to hold off North Carolina. But it should be noted that the '87 Hoosiers were essentially a five-man team with little or no help from their bench, whereas the Jayhawks have an abundance of quality depth.

Maybe if Kansas can get to the free throw line. Or put Memphis there when it matters the most. Then, again, Douglas-Roberts is shooting 83 percent (45-of-54) and Rose is shooting 78 percent (31-of-40) in the NCAA tournament, so count me among the Calipari converts, though a percentage of me wants to believe that free throws could make a difference tonight. "Percentage doesn't matter," Calipari countered Sunday. "A kid that's not mentally tough that shoots 90 percent, knees knocking, he's missing it." The caveat? "We've got tough kids," Calipari reiterated, making it tough to bet against them.

Mike Lucas  —  4/07/2008 8:09 am