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CT game predictions: Penn State at Wisconsin

The Capital Times  —  10/10/2008 6:30 pm

Once again, the crew at Capital Times sports will offer its predictions heading into every University of Wisconsin football game this season.

But this year, there's a twist: We're picking against the spread. And so far, it's been tough.

This isn't an endorsement of gambling, but rather an attempt to up the ante for our crew, which has rolled through a series of double-digit victory totals over the past four seasons as the Badgers have re-established themselves as a national powerhouse and removed the mystery from the outcome of most games.

This week's picks were made against a prevailing line that had Penn State favored by 6 points for Saturday's game against the Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium.

MIKE LUCAS

In 2005, the Badgers got crushed at Penn State, 35-14. The Nittany Lions sacked beleaguered quarterback John Stocco nine times and nobody touched defensive end Tamba Hali, who finished with a school record seven tackles behind the line of scrimmage, including four sacks. The following season in Madison, maybe still stinging from that butt-kicking, the Badgers got a measure of revenge by outlasting the Nittany Lions 13-3 at Camp Randall Stadium. "All week we had a little chip on our shoulder," said UW safety Joe Stellmacher. "All we heard about was Penn State's 'D' but we can play a little ball, too." So they did, allowing only 36 yards rushing and 201 total yards. In 2007, the Badgers got crushed again at Penn State, 38-7, in what amounted to another old fashioned butt-kicking. See a trend? So if we continue the symmetry for Saturday night's rematch here ... "I'm pretty sure they're going to be chompin' at the bit about this game," Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark said of the Badgers. "I'm pretty sure their coaches are going to be like, 'You remember what happened last year? We can't allow it to happen this year.' It was pretty big win for us and we were clicking on all cylinders." You think? Added Nittany Lions wide receiver Deon Butler on the urgency confronting the Badgers, "It could make or break their season if they upset a Top 10 ranked team."

Pick: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 21

Season record: 4-1 (3-2 against the spread)

JIM POLZIN

If the Badgers play well against the Nittany Lions for three quarters and take the lead at some point during the final 15 minutes of the game, will UW fans be confident an upset is brewing? Or will they have this sick feeling in their stomach that something awful is coming next -- a turnover, confusion on defense, a star player not knowing where to line up on a 2-point conversion? Considering what the Badgers have put their fans -- and themselves -- through the past two weeks, it's easy to be pessimistic.

If you break down the numbers, you'll have a difficult time saying with a straight face that Penn State's return to Happy Valley early Sunday morning won't be a happy one. But I'm ignoring all of that to play a hunch. This senior class may have seen its dreams of a Big Ten title disappear with heartbreaking defeats in back-to-back weeks, but there's still two things to play for: pride and a Jan. 1 bowl game. It says here the former will help UW find a way to beat Penn State.

Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20

Season record: 3-2 overall (3-2 against the spread)

ADAM MERTZ

For all of the inopportune screw-ups and coaching blunders this season has presented, the Badgers are seven points from being undefeated and a fringe contender for the national title. That's the glass half-full approach. But as my colleague Jim Polzin pointed out in his column after last week's last-minute loss to Ohio State, Wisconsin is just 7-6 since its midseason loss at Illinois a year ago. If the Badgers don't beat Penn State, not only is their season in shambles, but you start wondering about the general direction of the program.

Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20 

Season record: 3-2 (2-3 against the spread)

The Capital Times  —  10/10/2008 6:30 pm