Don't blame China for job losses
3:56 PM 11/08/03

Policymakers beware: A campaign to blame China for the loss of American factory jobs is gaining steam in Wisconsin and around the nation. But the effort is misguided. <

Consider this: Factory employment was down 15 percent from 1995 through 2002. <

You might jump to the conclusion, based on that job-loss evidence, that China's growth in manufacturing is indeed stealing jobs from the United States. But you'd be wrong. The 15 percent decline in manufacturing jobs occurred in China. That's right, China's manufacturing job loss roughly parallels the manufacturing job loss in the United States, which was about 17 percent over the same period. <

The correct conclusion is that manufacturing jobs are disappearing worldwide as more productive automated workplaces reduce the demand for humans to make things. Global manufacturing employment declined 11 percent from 1995 through 2002 even while industrial production jumped 30 percent. <

Yes, examples can be found of manufacturing operations that have moved from the United States to China or other foreign nations to take advantage of lower wages, fewer regulations, lower taxes or all of the above. But that doesn't make those nations our enemies. <

It's not the United States vs. China. It's the United States, China and every other nation vs. an overall decline in manufacturing employment, the jobs that have traditionally supported the middle class with desirable pay and benefits. <

The organization Save American Manufacturing, which has an active chapter in southeastern Wisconsin, has tried to link the loss in American factory jobs to China. While the group has some legitimate gripes about the negotiation of trade agreements and their enforcement, the United States cannot protect its manufacturing jobs by blaming China. <

Any policies based on that premise would be not only ineffective but also counterproductive. <

China actually poses a marvelous opportunity for American businesses. Estimates forecast that China, with a gross domestic product growth rate that will reach nearly 8 percent next year, will by 2011 rise to second, behind the United States, in its volume of imports. <

That means China could be the market that drives U.S. economic growth - but only if our businesses take advantage of the opportunity and only if our trade policies refrain from knee-jerk reactions. <

Wisconsin recorded $359 million worth of exports to China in 2002, making China the state's No. 6 foreign market. Many opportunities in China can help save American manufacturing jobs. But many more of the opportunities are likely to be for service industries, which are supplying most of the job growth around the world. <

Neither Wisconsin nor the United States as a whole can gain economic advantage by blaming job losses on China. Trade and economic policies must be guided by an understanding of the trends that grip both countries, not dimmed by a desire to find someone to blame.