Gov. Jim Doyle’s announcement Monday that he will not seek a third term as governor sets off Wisconsin’s first wide-open governor’s race since 1982 and promises to cause a political chain reaction that could affect political offices around the state.

After 2½ years of aggressive fundraising, Doyle, 63, said he was sticking to a private plan to serve no more than two terms that he and his wife, Jessica, made when he first ran for governor in 2002. The Democratic governor said he would remain focused on an agenda of education reform and slowing climate change, saying he was not interested in seeking a federal appointment before his term ends in January 2011.

“Over the next year and a half, I will be the governor, not a candidate,” said Doyle, who dropped no hints about his favored successor. “This moment in history will not be wasted.”

Reaction from declared and potential candidates came within minutes of Doyle’s announcement, showing why many experts expect Wisconsin’s race for governor next year to be one of the nation’s most competitive. The race could shake up the state’s political scene by drawing candidates from other offices into the race, opening up competitive races for those positions.

“There is a potential for a big domino effect if the field gets bigger,” said Brandon Scholz, a GOP political strategist.
Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, for example, plans to run for governor in next year’s Democratic primary, a decision about which she would have “more to say in the near future,” said her chief of staff, Ben Nuckels. That means there will be no incumbent in the lieutenant governor’s race.

U.S. Rep. Ron Kind, D-La Crosse, said in a statement that he had been receiving calls from supporters urging him to run as well.

“I thank them for their support and I am considering it. In the weeks to come I will make my decision,” Kind said.

A decision by Kind to run could boost the chances of state Sen. Dan Kapanke, R-La Crosse, who has already announced a challenge to Kind.

Candidates in the governor’s race now have 13 months before the Sept. 14, 2010, primaries to mount a daunting statewide campaign.

Marc Marotta, a former campaign chairman and fundraiser for Doyle, said Democratic contenders would need to raise at least $2 million to $3 million for the primary, with the winner then raising an additional $6 million for the general election.
Of the possible Democratic challengers, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett has the most cash on hand by far with $840,000.

Doyle was the first Democrat in a generation to be re-elected to the state’s highest office and is now the longest-serving governor of his party in the state’s history. But his job approval ratings have fallen since last year’s economic crisis, reaching 31 percent as Wisconsin lost 123,000 jobs.

Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Reince Priebus questioned Doyle’s statements that he had long wanted to limit himself to two terms, noting that the governor had aggressively raised $2 million in campaign funds over the last 2½ years. Priebus attributed Doyle’s decision to his falling approval ratings and the likely difficult budget the state will face in another two years.

“It gives us a free shot at the governor’s mansion that we’re excited about taking,” Priebus said.

Doyle could return the money in his $2 million war chest to donors, donate it to charity or use it to make political contributions within certain limits. Doyle spokesman Lee Sensenbrenner said the governor was reviewing his options.
Speaking at his former Near West Side school, Randall Elementary, Doyle said he was announcing his decision now to give other candidates time to start a campaign.

“I know that I will regret this decision many times over the coming year. But I am not going to pull a Brett Favre on you” and reconsider, he said to laughter.

The governor’s decision drew reaction from Democratic politicians across the country including President Barack Obama, who called Doyle “a true friend and a tireless public servant.

“His tough and fair leadership enabled him to work across the aisle to strengthen education and spur economic recovery,” Obama said in a statement.

Mark Neumann, a former U.S. representative running in the Republican primary for governor, said a wide-open race would allow more chances for candidates to present competing visions of Wisconsin’s future.

“It will help us have a forum for a vision of restoring the state and bringing jobs back to the state,” Neumann said.
Neumann’s opponent in the primary, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, said he considered Doyle to be among the weakest incumbent governors in the nation but acknowledged that Doyle could still have mounted a formidable re-election bid.

“There’s no doubt he would have been a very aggressive campaigner,” said Walker, adding he wouldn’t change his message of creating jobs.

While he won’t be campaigning for re-election, Doyle will have a year to campaign for his priorities in the Legislature and seal his legacy. In his time in office, Doyle championed stem-cell research and made Wisconsin the second-best state in the nation at access to health care, but he also struggled with a poor economy and harsh budget shortfalls.

Former state senator Mordecai Lee, who served in the Legislature when governors Patrick Lucey and later Lee Dreyfus announced they were leaving their office, said Doyle might still succeed in passing some elements of his agenda.

But Lee, now a professor of governmental affairs at UW-Milwaukee, said he had been surprised at how quickly Lucey and Dreyfus became lame ducks after their announcements.

“Their power evaporated in a split second,” he said.

State Journal reporters Charles Brace and Matt DeFour contributed to this report.

Click here for a photo gallery of images from Doyle's announcement event.

Click here to read the reactions to Doyle's announcement