A 31-year-old sales rep for a wine distributor, Heyn touts himself as an "unapologetic conservative," railing against commuter trains and county taxes.

But Downtown voters are overwhelmingly liberal. More than 80 percent, for example, supported Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004.

Heyn also lacks a high profile and political experience. His opponent, in contrast, is a well-connected Democratic Party insider and incumbent County Board chairman.

Still, the margin of Heyn's loss Tuesday could tell us something about Madison's changing Downtown. Heyn figures that with so many pricey condo towers rising around the Square, the percentage of conservatives has to be increasing.

And given that so few people participate in the spring election -- McDonell won his seat with only 550 votes the last time he faced competition -- anything is possible.

That's why Heyn is oddly stressing his conservative credentials in this extremely liberal place. He figures it only takes several hundred votes to win. And back in 2004, President Bush collected 1,500 votes in Downtown Madison's District 1.

But that was a high-turnout national election. The only way Heyn can win Tuesday is if virtually all of Downtown shrugs off voting, allowing a minority of conservative condo dwellers to promote diversity in a new and unexpected way.

Milfred is editorial page editor for the State Journal; 608-252-6110 or smilfred@madison.com.