At this time a year ago, the Milwaukee Brewers were sitting pretty.

Building on a brilliant 24-10 start, they had a 43-31 record on June 23 and an 8 1/2-game lead over the second-place Chicago Cubs in the National League Central Division.

Unfortunately for playoff-starved Milwaukee fans, that was the high-water mark for the Brewers. They stumbled in July and August and eventually lost the division title to the Cubs by two games.

With a week left in June this season, the Brewers are in the exact opposite position. It was the Cubs who exploded from the gate and, as recently as last week, held an 8 1/2-game lead over the Brewers.

That lead has shrunk to 6 1/2 games, but the fact remains that the Brewers and Cubs essentially have switched places since last year.

While many in Wisconsin have shown anguish over Ned Yost's managerial moves, Rickie Weeks' low on-base percentage, the wasted $10 million on closer Eric Gagne and the team's 80-82 record since June 23, they have overlooked one important thing: The Brewers are in considerably better shape this year than the Cubs were last year at this time.

Since the Cubs were able to overtake the Brewers in 2007, there is no reason the Brewers can't return the favor in 2008. There are several good reasons why they are in a better position than last year's Cubs to win the division or at least make the playoffs.

• The Brewers have played better this year than the Cubs did last year up to this point. Milwaukee's record is 40-34. A year ago, Chicago was 34-39 on June 23. True, the current Cubs have a slightly better record than the Brewers had a year ago, but the Brewers have been a more consistent team so far than the Cubs were in the first two months last season.

• The Cubs already are beginning to experience the type of adversity that brought down the Brewers. Chicago's best hitter, Alfonso Soriano, is out for at least six weeks with a broken bone in his hand and ace Carlos Zambrano is on the disabled list with a strained shoulder. A year ago, the Brewers' slide coincided with the six weeks that ace Ben Sheets spent on the disabled list in July and August with a sprained finger.

• The Cubs are starting to look like the 2007 Brewers on the mound. The biggest reason the Brewers faded last year was that their thin starting staff couldn't get deep enough into games and the bullpen eventually cracked under the strain. With only Zambrano and Ryan Dempster pitching past the fifth inning regularly so far, the Cubs bullpen (except for born-again closer Kerry Wood) already is showing signs of wear and tear.

• The Brewers don't have as much ground to make up as the Cubs did last year. Though there is the added complication of another team — the St. Louis Cardinals — between them and the Cubs in the standings, the Brewers have made up a little bit of ground on the Cubs recently. And since the Cardinals are experiencing adversity of their own with slugger Albert Pujols and ace Adam Wainwright on the DL, it will be the Cubs the Brewers ultimately must catch, not the Cards.

• The schedule favors the Brewers, especially in July. Last year, the Cubs caught up to the Brewers by the end of July. If the current Brewers are going to make up the stagger on the Cubs, July again will be the best time to do it. The Cubs, who have the best home record in baseball, play only 10 games at Wrigley Field in July. The Brewers have 17 home games, including the last four against the Cubs.

• The Brewers are right in the thick of the wild card chase. Last year, Chicago's 34-39 record was 10th in the NL and a full eight games behind the second-place team with the best record. This year, the Brewers' 40-34 record trails only St. Louis' 44-32 mark among non-division leaders.

Despite the evidence just presented, the Cubs will not be easy to catch.

With the best offensive team in the NL, more experience than last year's Brewers and a manager who isn't likely to lose his focus in the heat of a pennant race like Yost did last year, they are better equipped to maintain their hold on first place than the 2007 Brewers were.

Still, as last year showed, sitting pretty doesn't mean much in late June.

Contact Tom Oates at toates@madison.com or 608-252-6172.