For every base hit he gets, Alex Rodriguez makes two outs. Kobe Bryant sinks fewer than 50 percent of his shots. And the local weather forecasters? Don't even get me started on their batting average.

As you can see, nobody's perfect. Not Mel Kiper Jr. (except for his hair), not Kiper protege Todd McShay and certainly not me when it comes to predicting the NFL draft. Please keep that in mind as you mock my mock draft Saturday.

As for a draft that is heavy on cornerbacks and offensive tackles, many expect a shake-up near the top, with every team from No. 2 through No. 7 looking to trade down and every team from No. 8 to No. 10 trying to move up. Remember, however, that no team has traded into the top seven picks since 2003, probably because the contracts get awfully expensive up there.

With that in mind, here's one guess on how the first round will go:

1. Miami: Jake Long, OT, Michigan — I'm going way out on a limb here.

2. St. Louis: Chris Long, DE, Virginia — An end? A tackle? Take your pick because the Rams need both.

3. Atlanta: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU — Falcons rejoice when Rams pass on Dorsey because he is the best player in the draft.

4. Oakland: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas — Eccentric owner Al Davis values speed more than need.

5. Kansas City: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State — Chiefs trade Jared Allen and get his replacement in the same week.

6. New York Jets: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College — Jets beat Baltimore to the No. 1 quarterback, unless they trade this pick to the Ravens.

7. New England: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State — If they don't trade down, Patriots will fix a line that was exposed in the Super Bowl.

8. Baltimore: Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State — Unable to land Ryan, Ravens take a corner with Deion Sanders-type athletic ability.

9. Cincinnati: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC — Bengals need a tackle so bad they're prepared to trade up to get Ellis.

10. New Orleans: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy — Saints are another team that likes Ellis, but Bengals have more to offer.

11. Buffalo: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State — Bills desperately need a threat opposite Lee Evans.

12. Denver: Keith Rivers, LB, USC — An offensive tackle or a running back are tempting, but Broncos can't pass on Rivers if he slips this far.

13. Carolina: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida — Panthers want Ryan too, but they settle for Mike Rucker's replacement.

14. Chicago: Branden Albert, OT, Virginia — Bears' draft strategy? Best available offensive lineman.

15. Detroit: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois — With offensive coordinator Mike Martz gone, Lions will actually call some running plays.

16. Arizona: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida — A classic example of supply meeting demand.

17. Kansas City: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt — Chiefs were going to take a tackle at No. 5 had they not made the Allen trade with Minnesota.

18. Houston: Jeff Otah, OT, Pitt — Maybe the problem with Houston's running game isn't the backs.

19. Philadelphia: Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami — Brian Dawkins can't go forever, can he?

20. Tampa Bay: DeSean Jackson, WR, California — Buccaneers are showing their age at wide receiver.

21. Washington: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson — Redskins still hoping to scatch their wide receiver itch by trading for Chad Johnson.

22. Dallas: Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas — Owner Jerry Jones wants McFadden, settles for McFadden's backup in college.

23. Pittsburgh: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon — Steelers never outgrow their need for ball-carriers.

24. Tennessee: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas — Vince Young needs a big target or he's never going to improve.

25. Seattle: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina — It's coach Mike Holmgren's final season, so Seahawks want to win now.

26. Jacksonville: Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC — A close call over Miami's more talented but less productive Calais Campbell.

27. San Diego: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College — Chargers don't need much, but they could use an instant starter at right tackle.

28. Dallas: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma — Pacman Jones trade gives Cowboys the freedom to add offensive firepower.

29. San Francisco: Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee — 49ers wanted Cherilus, but Mayo is a terrific consolation prize.

30. Green Bay: Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona — Packers could trade down to a quarterback-needy team. If not, they like the dependable Cason over Auburn's Patrick Lee, who started only one year, or Kansas' Aqib Talib, who has character issues. If it's not a cornerback, USC offensive tackle Sam Baker and Notre Dame tight end John Carlson are possibilities.

31. New York Giants: SS Tyrell Johnson, Arkansas State — Giants wanted Phillips, but the arch-rival Eagles spoiled that plan.