In the last couple of years, the NBA draft has been turned upside down by the smallest men on the floor.

The old draft mantra — "When in doubt, go big" — has gone the way of the four-year college player.

In the minds of many, point guard has replaced center as the game's most important position.

The success of teams quarterbacked by point guards such as Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul and Deron Williams has changed the perception of what it takes to win in the NBA (though that theory ignores the reality that the point guard for this year's champion was someone named Rajon Rondo).

Still, that belief is why Chicago will take point guard Derrick Rose over forward Michael Beasley with the No. 1 pick — a mistake, by the way — and why half of the first 12 picks will be point guards or their not-so-distant cousins, combo guards.

With that in mind, here is a prediction of how the first round will go:

Chicago: Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis — The Bulls are on the clock and Kirk Hinrich is on the trading block.

Miami: Michael Beasley, SF, Kansas State — Beasley will be taken No. 2 overall, though it might be by the Timberwolves, Sonics or Grizzlies instead of the Heat.

Minnesota: O.J. Mayo, SG, USC — Unable to trade with the Heat, the Timberwolves can't pass on the draft's most complete player.

Seattle: Brook Lopez, C, Stanford — Lopez can score and pass from the low post, which should make Kevin Durant very happy.

Memphis: Kevin Love, PF, UCLA — The Grizzlies have had a hole at power forward since they traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers.

New York: Jerryd Bayless, PG, Arizona — The Knicks need more than Bayless in the backcourt, but he's a start.

Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana — The Clippers are almost as desperate for guards as the Knicks.

Milwaukee: Joe Alexander, SF, West Virginia — The Bucks want to move up, presumably for Mayo or Bayless, but are happy to land the athletic, competitive Alexander.

Charlotte: Russell Westbrook, PG, UCLA — Nothing would make new coach Larry Brown happier than a defensive-minded point guard.

New Jersey: Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy — The Nets are dangling Richard Jefferson as trade bait and need a replacement.

Indiana: Anthony Randolph, PF, LSU — The trade for T.J. Ford alleviates the need for a point guard.

Sacramento: D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas — Chris Paul has made short point guards fashionable again.

Portland: Alexis Ajinca, C, France — Loaded with young talent, the Blazers view Ajinca as a long-term asset.

Golden State: Jason Thompson, C, Rider — There are better players out there, but coach Don Nelson always likes NBA-ready big men.

Phoenix: Brandon Rush, SG, Kansas — The future is now for the Suns and Rush can help on the wing right away.

Philadelphia: Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State — The Sixers need a power forward but have their sights set on Elton Brand should he leave the Clippers.

Indiana (pending trade approval): Mareese Speights, C, Florida — The Pacers need a replacement for departed Jermaine O'Neal.

Washington: Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas — Some think Arthur is a clone of Antawn Jamison, who could leave in free agency.

Cleveland: Robin Lopez, C, Stanford — The Cavs will have to find scoring help for LeBron James elsewhere. Like, say, Milwaukee?

Charlotte (pending trade approval): Donte Green, SF, Syracuse — The Bobcats land the best outside shooter in the draft.

New Jersey: J.J. Hickson, PF, North Carolina State — The Nets are building for 2010, when Cavs' James becomes a free agent.

Orlando: Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky — It appears J.J. Redick has run out of Magic.

Utah: JaVale McGee, C, Nevada — The Jazz like big men they can develop and McGee has plenty of room for development.

Seattle: Mario Chalmers, PG, Kansas — Sonics fans, at least the ones in Oklahoma City, will enjoy watching Chalmers dish to Durant and Lopez.

Houston: Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown — Injury-prone Yao Ming needs a younger Georgetown-trained backup than Dikembe Mutombo.

San Antonio: Ryan Anderson, SF, California — The Spurs find a sweet-shooting replacement for Robert Horry.

Portland (pending trade approval): Nicolas Batum, SF, France — Batum's stock dropped after recent heart scare, but the Blazers can afford to take a chance.

Memphis: DeAndre Jordan, C, Texas A&M — The Grizzlies rebuild their power positions in one draft.

Detroit: Bill Walker, SG, Kansas State — General manager Joe Dumars loves tough, versatile players with potential.

Boston: Chris Douglas-Roberts, SG, Memphis — Ray Allen and Paul Pierce aren't getting any younger.

Contact Tom Oates at toates@madison.com or 608-252-6172.