Who would have thought that, after nearly a half-century in power, Fidel Castro would step down not with a bang but with a whimper?

Castro, 81, who seized power in Cuba in 1959, announced Tuesday he will not seek re-election as that country's leader. The immediate impact will no doubt be minimal. Castro's brother, Raul, has been running the country for the past year-and-a-half, while Fidel presumably recovered from abdominal surgery. Raul is only 76, a comparative youngster in the geriatric world of dictators.

Sooner or later, however, Cuba is going to have a new government and the United States is going to have to find a new nemesis.

President Bush said Tuesday the U.S. is ready and willing to help Cuba set up a democratic governing process. Since our country has done just about everything it can for the past 49 years to bankrupt Cuba, chances are good his offer will be refused.

The European Union says it wants better relations and, I'd expect, Europe's offer might receive a warmer reception.

Cuba does have the potential to become a democracy. Despite his many failings as a leader -- Cuba is an economic basket case -- Castro did invest his country's resources in education and health care. Unlike the poor of many African and Middle-Eastern countries, Cuba's poor are literate and seem to have a yearning for Western values.

What our country does with a democratic Cuba is a little problematic.

We have a large Cuban contingent in Florida that will rejoice in the fall of Castro, but that also thinks it should play a role in rebuilding Cuban society. That hasn't worked so well with refugees from Iraq and Afghanistan who returned only to discover those they left behind didn't miss them.

On the other hand, we have a large Cuban contingent in this country who have worked hard, done well and who are a large part of our political system.

For once, I think the president's response is probably the right one. He wished Cuba well but toned down the rhetoric about what must happen next.

One American politician who may lose in this transition is John McCain.

Think about this for a moment: McCain is 71 and, if elected, won 't take office for a year. If he serves eight years, he will be 80. Castro is 81 and hasn 't been seen in public for 19 months. When Castro was 71, he was in full vigor and was giving multi-hour speeches.

Sure, it's a cheap shot -- but not all that cheap. Eight years is a long time at the end of one's career.

In the meantime, I'm with Bush. Let's wish the Cubans well and hope their transition to a new form of leadership will bring them the freedom and prosperity the last 49 years have fallen short of offering.