Barack Obama will win Wisconsin in the presidential election this fall.

Granted, so much can happen before November that I am not putting any money on my prediction, and no one else should be so foolish either.

But the times are not favorable to Republican candidate John McCain -- the low standing of incumbent Republican President George Bush, the unpopular war in Iraq, a shaky economy, gas prices and more.

True, we know that the vote in Wisconsin was close in the last two presidential elections. The Democrat won by only 5,000 votes in 2000 and only 11,000 votes in 2004. And John Kerry might have expected to do better in 2004 because third-party candidate Ralph Nader was not a serious factor as he had been in 2000 when he got 94,000 votes in Wisconsin.

On the other hand, the last time a Republican candidate for president carried Wisconsin was in 1984 with Ronald Reagan 's landslide victory.

Over and over, people say that Wisconsin is a "swing " or "purple " state, but I challenge that. Voting can be close in Wisconsin, but it is more of a light blue state steadily growing darker blue. It definitely leans Democratic.

Its two senators are Democrats, as are most of its members of the House of Representatives, all but one of its state elected officials, a majority of the state Senate, and perhaps after 2008 a majority of the Assembly.

There is not a lot of good news for Republicans in Wisconsin. There is no reason to think there will be in November either.

Republican strength is greatest in two areas in Wisconsin. One is suburban Milwaukee -- the counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington and parts of Milwaukee County. These areas have grown steadily since World War II and routinely generate enough Republican margin to offset the city of Milwaukee 's Democratic votes.

The other real Republican base in the state lies in areas that are largely German in ancestry, especially in the east and central regions -- in rural areas, villages, and small cities. An astounding 43 percent of Wisconsin residents claim German ancestry and, outside of big cities and suburbia, more often than not these voters cast Republican ballots.

This is a pattern that was set in 1940, first grounded in opposition to Democrat Franklin Roosevelt 's movement toward involving the United States in another war with Germany and today reinforced by a tradition of Republicanism and economic and cultural conservatism.

The strongest areas of Democratic strength in Wisconsin are the city of Milwaukee and Dane County, including Madison.

Dane County now accounts for close to 10 percent of the state 's total vote, whereas it was only half that in 1950. And Dane County itself is ever more Democratic.

In the off-year election of 2006, Dane County Democrats gave Gov. Doyle a margin of more than 90,000 votes. In addition, the liberal political culture of Madison and Dane County has spread to the surrounding counties -- Green, Iowa, Columbia, Sauk and even northern Rock County.

Other areas of support for the Democrats are some of the lightly occupied counties of the north, such as Ashland and Bayfield, many heavily Norwegian American towns and villages scattered throughout the state, and American Indian areas.

The major challenge facing Sen. Obama in Wisconsin is not only whether his race is a barrier in an overwhelmingly white state. Perhaps more important is whether voters feel comfortable with someone whose educational background and life experience is so different from theirs.

Moreover, statements about the importance of college students ' affinity for Obama should not impress one too much: Most college areas voted heavily against the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in 2006, but the amendment easily passed in Wisconsin. Similarly, while African American voting will undoubtedly increase in 2008, well less than 10 percent of Wisconsinites are African American.

The major challenge facing Sen. McCain, aside from being Republican in a light blue state, is the Iraq war, which he firmly supports.

Wisconsin has a long anti-war tradition that first arose at the time of the Civil War and today goes far beyond the liberal orthodoxy of Madison and similar places or the attitudes of many in the Vietnam generation. For better or for worse, Wisconsin deserves its anti-war reputation, and McCain will not find it easy to overcome this tradition.

The place to watch most as the campaign unfolds is the Fox River Valley. This region now casts more than 10 percent of the state 's vote, a substantial increase over 50 years ago. Although it has long been much more Republican than the state as a whole, this situation is rapidly changing.

Expect a lot of visits by both presidential candidates to Appleton, Green Bay, and Oshkosh.

is professor emeritus of political science at UW-Madison. His latest book, "Wisconsin Votes," a study of Wisconsin elections from its founding to the present, emphasizes how ethnic, cultural and religious affiliations have influenced voting behavior.

Robert Booth Fowler