Control of the state Assembly -- and with it the direction of state government over the next two years -- could well rest in the hands of voters like Mark Wentland, of DeForest.

Two years ago, Wentland helped re-elect incumbent Republican Eugene Hahn to the 47th District seat north of Madison by just 166 votes. But now that the Cambria Republican is retiring after nearly 18 years in office, Wentland said he doesn 't know whether he 'll back one of the Republicans seeking to keep the seat in GOP hands or one of the Democrats hoping to reclaim it for their party.

"I 'm not sure what I 'm going to do, " said Wentland, 38, a DeForest businessman who describes himself as an independent. "I vote for the best candidate. "

Hahn 's seat is one of more than a dozen open or GOP-held seats Democrats say they 're aggressively going after in the November election to try to wrest control of the Assembly from Republicans. Candidates have until 5 p.m. Tuesday to register with the Government Accountability Board.

At stake is how Gov. Jim Doyle, a Democrat, and the Legislature -- currently divided between a GOP-controlled Assembly and a Democratic-led Senate -- approach the economy, taxation, health care and education.

Republicans hold a 52-47 majority in the Assembly, where all jobs are up for a vote this fall. That means Democrats need to gain just three seats to control the chamber for the first time since the 1993-94 session and potentially put the party in control of both the Legislature and the executive branch.

In the Senate, where Democrats have a 17-15 edge with one vacancy, half of the seats are up for re-election. Republicans need to gain two seats to take back that house.

For Democrats, the question is whether national trends expected to favor their party in the fall elections will filter down to legislative races, said Mordecai Lee, a professor of governmental affairs at UW-Milwaukee and a former Democratic lawmaker.

"Is it 1932 all over again in the sense is it a national turning of the corner to the point of being a political flood? " he said. "I 'm sort of skeptical, but nobody can say for sure. "

That year, in the midst of the Great Depression, the national electoral sweep by Democrats led by Franklin Delano Roosevelt as president boosted Democrats in Wisconsin, giving them control of the Assembly for the first time in 40 years and the state a Democratic governor for the first time in 42 years.

Lots of opportunity '

Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Madison, who is leading the Democrats ' Assembly campaign effort, said Democrats see "lots of opportunity " for picking up the three seats they need to control the Assembly.

Six Assembly Republicans, including Hahn, aren 't seeking re-election, and Democrats plan to be competitive in eight more districts now represented by Republicans.

Those include the western Wisconsin district held by Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch, R-West Salem, who is being challenged by Cheryl Hancock, of Holmen, president of the Holmen School Board and executive director of the local Red Cross chapter.

Pocan promised that many Democrats will show strong fundraising support in campaign finance reports due this month. He said the message of "change " championed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in his presidential campaign will work for Democrats locally because they have not been in charge in the Assembly.

"Every time something breaks, it breaks our way this year, " he said. "The Republican brand is not a brand you want to be a part of this fall. "

He said Democrats are working hard to find a candidate in all of the Assembly 's 99 districts. The strategy is intended to help the Democratic ticket overall by forcing Republicans to defend their districts rather than help out their colleagues.

Race by race '

But Huebsch, who is overseeing campaign strategy for Assembly Republicans, said the Democrats are running a lot of candidates in districts they can 't win. Incumbent Republicans and GOP candidates in open seats recognize it could be a tough year for their party and are working hard to win, he said.

"This is race by race, and all politics is local, and you can 't beat somebody with nobody, " Huebsch said. "People still vote for individuals. They don 't vote for parties in this state. "

Huebsch said his first goal is to protect incumbents who won narrowly in 2006 and keep the seats now held by Republicans who aren 't seeking re-election.

Then he said the GOP will aggressively campaign against first-term Democrats who won close races two years ago as well as other incumbents seen to be vulnerable.

"They hold seats they shouldn 't have, " Huebsch said of more than half-a-dozen freshman Democrats.

Republicans expect to field candidates in about 75 districts, taking a pass on heavily Democratic areas like Madison and Milwaukee, Huebsch said. (Former GOP state Sen. Tom Reynolds, however, is recruiting conservative candidates to run against several Milwaukee-area Democrats in their party 's primary).

Despite polling that favors Democrats, the races will likely turn on factors unique to each district, said Lee of UW-Milwaukee.

"The question about the Assembly is going to be resolved on the ground, " Lee said. "Who has the better candidates? Who has the better campaigns? Who has the better issues? "

In recent years, the nod has gone to Assembly Republican candidates. The GOP took control of the chamber with 51 members in 1995, and since then the party has added between one and three seats each election until losing eight seats in 2006.

Defensive money

In the Senate, Republicans see an opening in the recent resignation of Democratic Sen. Roger Breske, of Eland, whom Doyle appointed as railroad commissioner in May. That could give Republicans a chance to regain the majority, which they lost in the 2006 elections, some say.

Sen. Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, said Breske 's move will force Democrats and third-party groups to put money into his district to defend it -- at the expense of other Senate races and even some in the Assembly.

"Now the Democrats are going to be throwing money feverishly at that race, and that 's money that otherwise would 've gone to try and defeat Alberta Darling, Sheila Harsdorf or Dan Kapanke, " he said.

Those three Republicans, from River Hills, River Falls and La Crosse, respectively, are the top incumbent targets for Democrats.

Fitzgerald said GOP incumbents have worked hard and "inoculated themselves " against the possibility of a bad Republican year. In addition to Breske 's old northeast Wisconsin seat, Fitzgerald said Republicans were optimistic about taking back one or two seats held by incumbent Democrats.

But Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker, D-Weston, said former tourism Secretary Jim Holperin is a strong candidate to replace Breske and said Republican challengers will have a hard time unseating Democratic incumbents in key Green Bay and Kenosha-area districts.

He said fundraising has outpaced where it was at this time two years ago, when Democrats picked up four seats to take control of the Senate. He 's even predicting Democrats could pick up two more seats this year for a commanding majority next year.

"I think we 're in pretty good shape, " Decker said.

Doyle would gain power

Doyle, who is not up for re-election this year, has been raising money and campaigning for Democratic candidates in recent weeks. If the party succeeds in capturing both houses, he 'll be in the best position since he was first elected in 2002 to implement his agenda.

That agenda includes pushing for expanded health-care coverage for small business owners, a statewide smoking ban, a tax on hospitals that will generate additional federal funding for the state, expansion of 4-year-old kindergarten, and an education-improvement package still under development, said spokesman Lee Sensenbrenner.

Huebsch said at a time when pocketbook issues are the dominant concern among voters, Republicans will argue they 're best placed to work with Doyle on stimulating the economy.

He and Fitzgerald also said GOP proposals for market-driven health-care reforms will sit better with voters than the $15 billion universal health-care plan backed by Senate Democrats, which Doyle has dismissed as unrealistic.