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FRI., DEC 28, 2007 - 12:08 AM
Big Ten women's basketball: Season preview
By TOM ZIEMER
608-252-6174

(In predicted order of finish)

Ohio State (9-2)

Key players: C Jantel Lavender, fr. (17.4 points per game, 10 rebounds per game, 53.1 percent from field this season); G Marscilla Packer, sr. (15.6 ppg, 3.1 assists per game, 42.9 percent from 3-point); F Star Allen, jr. (8.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 55.6 percent from field).

Key games: at Michigan State (Sunday), vs. UW (Jan. 20), at Penn State (Feb. 28).

Big Ten title if: Lavender can keep putting up Jessica Davenport-like numbers. With the way Lavender's playing, the Buckeyes haven't missed the three-time conference player of the year. Ohio State is tops among Big Ten teams in scoring at 74.7 points per game.

Big-time trouble if: The Buckeyes aren't atop the standings midway through January. Aside from Ohio State's conference opener at fellow title contender Michigan State, the opening stretch — vs. Michigan, at Iowa, vs. Indiana and at Northwestern — definitely is the easiest part of the Buckeyes' schedule.

Postseason fate: For the sixth straight year, Ohio State will be playing in the NCAA tournament.

Michigan State (8-4)

Key players: C Allyssa DeHaan, so. (16 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 5.2 blocks per game); F Kalisha Keane, fr. (13.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2 steals per game); G Brittney Thomas, fr. (5.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.3 apg).

Key games: vs. Ohio State (Sunday), at UW (Jan. 2), at Penn State (Feb. 17).

Big Ten title if: DeHaan's offensive game catches up to her defensive dominance. The 6-foot-9 sophomore is leading the conference in blocked shots with 62 — 33 more than the next-best player. But in the Spartans' four losses, she's scored eight, 13, 10 and 13 points.

Big-time trouble if: The non-conference season was a sign of things to come. Michigan State was ranked until this week, but the four times they've faced quality opponents — Louisiana State, Old Dominion, Oklahoma and Hartford — they've lost. The Spartans only have beaten two teams with RPIs better than 100.

Postseason fate: Coach Suzy Merchant will get the Spartans to the tournament in her first year on the job thanks to DeHaan.

Penn State (9-3)

Key players: G Tyra Grant, so. (15.4 ppg, 50.7 percent from field), G Mashea Williams, jr. (12.6 ppg, 1.7 spg), G Kamela Gissendanner sr. (12.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg).

Key games: at Michigan State (Jan. 5), at UW (Jan. 24), vs. Ohio State (Feb. 28).

Big Ten title if: Penn State's talented group of guards can continue to push the tempo. The Nittany Lions showed they could be a contender by upsetting Duke 86-84 on Dec. 2 behind 68 combined points from Grant, Williams, Gissendanner and junior Brianne O'Rourke.

Big-time trouble if: The Nittany Lions sputter at all on the offensive end. They're last in the conference in scoring defense, giving up an average of 68.8 points per game. They don't have a lot of quality size in the post, either.

Postseason fate: First-year coach Coquese Washington and her team will be dancing in March.

Wisconsin (7-3)

Key players: G Jolene Anderson, sr. (20 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 3.2 apg); G Janese Banks, sr. (15.0 ppg, 42.4 percent on 3-pointers); F Tara Steinbauer, fr. (8 ppg, 68.8 percent from field).

Key games: vs. Michigan State (Jan. 2), at Ohio State (Jan. 20), vs. Ohio State (Feb. 10).

Big Ten title if: Players other than Anderson and Banks step forward and are able to score consistently. If Steinbauer (lower right leg injury) is healthy and contributes as she did after being inserted into the starting lineup, the Badgers will get a big boost.

Big-time trouble if: The turnover problems that plagued UW in the non-conference season flare up. The Badgers also need to show they're capable of beating other contenders — last season, six of their seven conference wins came against teams that finished behind them.

Postseason fate: The Badgers are going to need an impressive conference showing to get an NCAA bid. They'll be on the bubble when Selection Monday rolls around.

Minnesota (9-3)

Key players: G Emily Fox, jr. (17.5 ppg, 4 apg, 45.2 percent on 3-pointers); F Ashley Ellis-Milan, so. (10.3 ppg, 8 rpg); G Korinne Campbell, so. (9.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

Key games: at UW (Jan. 7), vs. Michigan State (Jan. 27), at Penn State (Feb. 14).

Big Ten title if: The Golden Gophers build on last season's performance, when they tied for fifth place in the conference at 7-9 despite having the second-youngest team in the nation. To do that, they'll need Fox to keep producing numbers like she has thus far.

Big-time trouble if: Minnesota hits another rough patch in the middle of the conference season as it did last season, when the Gophers dropped six of eight from Jan. 14 to Feb. 8. They'll face a defining stretch Jan. 24 to Feb. 3, when they play host to Ohio State and Michigan State before traveling to Purdue and Ohio State.

Postseason fate: The Big Ten might not be good enough to get four NCAA bids, let alone five. Minnesota will be headed to the WNIT.

Illinois (9-3)

Key players: C Jenna Smith, so. (19.1 ppg, 10.3 rpg); F Danyel Crutcher, sr. (10.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg); G Lori Bjork, jr. (9.8 ppg, 37.1 percent from 3-point).

Key games: at Penn State (Jan. 2), vs. Ohio State (Jan. 31), at Minnesota (Feb. 7).

Big Ten title if: Smith can keep up that kind of production in conference play — the good news for the Fighting Illini is she had better numbers in Big Ten games as a freshman — and the team continues to gel under first-year coach Jolette Law.

Big-time trouble if: Bjork's struggles persist. She led Illinois in scoring last season (14.3 ppg), but is shooting just 32.6 percent from the field. If the Illini play as they did down the stretch last year — 2-5 in their last seven regular-season games — they'll get lost in the middle of the pack.

Postseason fate: New coach, same result. The Illini will be headed to the WNIT for the fourth straight season.

Indiana (7-5)

Key players: G Jamie Braun, so. (13.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 3.5 apg); F Whitney Thomas, jr. (11.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.5 spg); F Amber Jackson, jr. (12.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg).

Key games: vs. Purdue (Jan. 3), at Iowa (Feb. 3), at Minnesota (Feb. 28).

Big Ten title if: The Hoosiers take another — and a massive — step forward under second-year coach Felisha Legette-Jack. They showed what they're capable of Dec. 22 by upsetting then-No. 13 West Virginia 79-66, and have a good young point guard in Braun, a former Marshfield athlete.

Big-time trouble if: Opponents can take advantage of Indiana's lack of size down low. The Hoosiers only have three players 6-foot or taller, and their tallest regular is the 6-2 Jackson.

Postseason fate: They'll be a tough out every game, but the Hoosiers are destined for the WNIT at best.

Iowa (7-4)

Key players: F Wendy Ausdemore, jr. (12.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 58.8 on 3-pointers); G Kristi Smith, jr. (11 ppg, 3.2 apg); C Megan Skouby, jr. (9.4 ppg, 51.8 percent from field).

Key games: vs. UW (Feb. 13), vs. Indiana (Feb. 3), vs. Minnesota (Feb. 17).

Big Ten title if: Their experience pays off. Like UW, the Hawkeyes entered the season with all their contributors from last season back, and only three of Iowa's players are underclassmen. The Hawkeyes are a stingy bunch, too, ranking first in the conference in scoring defense (54.2 points per game).

Big-time trouble if: The Hawkeyes struggle on the offensive end. They have a balanced attack, but have lost every time they've scored fewer than 60 points. Iowa has cracked 70 points only three times so far.

Postseason fate: Another year with a losing record means a second straight year without a postseason berth for the Hawkeyes.

Purdue (4-6)

Key players: F Lakisha Freeman, jr. (13.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg); C Danielle Campbell, jr. (11.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg); F Natasha Bogdanova (9.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 42.9 percent on 3-pointers).

Key games: at Indiana (Jan. 3), at Iowa (Jan. 24), vs. Illinois (Jan. 27).

Big Ten title if: Those hopes went out the window last summer when senior forward Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton, a consensus first-team, All-Big Ten pick last season, tore her left ACL. She has taken a redshirt, while another returning starter, junior guard Jodi Howell, might not come back from a shoulder injury.

Big-time trouble if: Anyone else gets hurt. The Boilermakers' depth is being tested, and they've struggled out of the gates.

Postseason fate: The injuries will be just too much to overcome, and Purdue will miss the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1993.

Michigan (7-3)

Key players: C Krista Phillips, so. (10.7 ppg, 56.4 percent from field); G Jessica Minnfield, jr. (9.7 ppg, 45.5 percent on 3-pointers); G Janelle Cooper, sr. (8.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Key games: vs. Iowa (Sunday), vs. Indiana (Jan. 24), vs. Purdue (Feb. 21).

Big Ten title if: Former UW-Green Bay coach Kevin Borseth pulls off a miracle in his first season leading the Wolverines. Michigan just doesn't have the firepower on the offensive end — Phillips is the only player averaging double figures in points — to do much better than last season's 10th-place finish.

Big-time trouble if: The Wolverines get off to as poor of a start as last season, when they lost seven of their first eight conference games. Then again, their 2-6 finish wasn't much better.

Postseason fate: Better under Borseth, but there won't be enough wins for even a WNIT berth.

Northwestern (4-9)

Key players: C Amy Jaeschke, fr. (14.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg); G Nadia Bibbs, sr. (9.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 4.2 apg); C Ellen Jaeschke, jr. (9.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg).

Key games: vs. Indiana (Dec. 31), at Michigan (Jan. 6), vs. Michigan (Feb. 14).

Big Ten title if: It's just not going to happen. Amy Jaeschke, a former McDonald's All-American, is back after breaking her hand in the Wildcats'  season opener, but Northwestern still looks doomed to battle it out with Michigan for last place yet again.

Big-time trouble if: Jaeschke struggles. She's the only player averaging double figures in points for a Wildcats team that just doesn't have a lot of weapons.

Postseason fate: Done after one game at the Big Ten tournament.


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