TAMPA, Fla. — The old bowl coach himself, Barry Alvarez, had a theory about what kinds of teams win postseason college football games.

The University of Wisconsin athletic director, who had an enviable knack for winning bowl games as UW's coach, said time and time again it was all about the matchup.

Sure, a team's record, the strength of its conference, the extent of its motivation and whether it is on a roll or in a slump all play into how well a team performs in a bowl game. But in the world according to Alvarez, the biggest factor is whether a team matches up favorably with its opponent.

That is good news for the Badgers.

When 18th-ranked UW (9-3) locked up a berth in the Outback Bowl, it had plenty of potential opponents in the deep and highly regarded SEC. The Badgers could have gotten LSU and its awesome talent, Florida and its spread offense or Georgia, which is playing as well as any team in the country.

Instead, UW got Tennessee.

Nothing against Tennessee, which has a 9-4 record, is ranked 16th and lost to LSU on a late touchdown in the SEC title game, but when the Badgers play the Volunteers in the Outback Bowl on Tuesday at Raymond James Stadium, it will be a favorable matchup. In fact, it will be the best matchup they could have gotten out of the SEC this season.

The game is far from a lock — remember, Tennessee is favored by 1.5 points — but a number of factors make this a game UW could and probably should win.

First, UW no longer is blinded by SEC speed.

The Badgers are 2-3 against SEC teams in bowls since 1998, losing twice to Georgia and once to Auburn before beating Auburn and Arkansas the last two years. In those wins, UW was as fast (Arkansas) or faster (Auburn) than its opponent.

Second, Tennessee doesn't have the overwhelming talent of some SEC teams UW has played.

Georgia in the 1998 and 2005 Outback bowls and Auburn in the 2003 Music City Bowl were top-heavy with future NFL draft picks. To a lesser extent, so was the Arkansas team UW beat 17-14 last year in the Capital One Bowl. This Tennessee team has some future pros, but it won't be a significant player on draft day.

UW coach Bret Bielema is fond of saying Tennessee was one or two plays away from beating LSU for the SEC title and playing in a BCS bowl, which is true. However, the Volunteers also won three games by a total of six points, so you also could say they were three plays away from being 6-6.

Third, Tennessee doesn't have the kind of athletic, NFL-bound talent in the front seven that has given UW fits.

Georgia (twice), Auburn (in the first meeting) and Arkansas had dominant front sevens and were able to stop UW's run and put great pressure on the quarterback. In those four games, UW's offense averaged a paltry 231.5 yards of offense. In UW's 24-10 victory over Auburn in the 2006 Capital One Bowl, the Badgers rolled up 548 yards against a no-name Tigers defense.

Tennessee's defense has been suspect all season, allowing an average of 407.6 yards and 28.1 points per game. The Vols haven't put much pressure on the passer, lost two starting cornerbacks during the season and were further weakened when tackle Demonte Bolden and linebacker Rico McCoy were declared academically ineligible for the bowl. And it remains to be seen if linebacker Ryan Karl will play after injuring his elbow in the SEC title game.

Fourth, Tennessee uses a traditional offense, not the spread that UW has been virtually powerless to stop all season.

The Vols will test UW's defense with a strong arsenal of quarterback Erik Ainge, tailback Arian Foster and a group of capable receivers, plus a line that has allowed only four sacks. The Badgers will have to manufacture some pressure because Ainge is prone to mistakes when rushed and they are down to their third stringer at one cornerback spot, but at least they won't be facing the dreaded spread.

Fifth, Tennessee, unlike UW, has been dealing with one distraction after another in the last month.

Coach Phillip Fulmer's job security has been an issue all season, two popular assistants — offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe and receivers coach Trooper Taylor — are leaving for other jobs and six players were declared academically ineligible, including the two starting defenders and top pass-catcher Lucas Taylor.

Finally, UW is an underdog, a situation that has served it well the past two years in bowl games.

"To be honest," All-American tight end Travis Beckum said, "I think we play the best as a team when we're playing a better opponent."

No, the Badgers play best when they have a good matchup.

Like Tuesday.