The Green Bay Packers general manager calls the NFL draft a "long-term investment for the organization." In his four years on the job, Thompson has shown little interest in short-term investments, preferring to build almost entirely through the draft.

It's hard to find fault with that approach after last year, when the Packers went 13-3 just two years after going 4-12. The critics who said Thompson was too conservative in free agency and too afraid to take a chance in the draft got awfully quiet after that.

Still, things change within franchises and a philosophy that worked in one situation doesn't necessarily work in another. The Packers of today are much different than the team Thompson took over in 2005.

These Packers are among the NFL's deepest teams, have no glaring weaknesses (assuming you believe Aaron Rodgers is ready to replace Brett Favre) and have tons of salary-cap room. Since there are comparatively few openings on the roster, Thompson has outgrown his need to trade down and stockpile picks -- 34 in three years -- during the draft.

Indeed, if ever there was an optimum time for Thompson to deviate from his saturation drafting and go for quality over quantity, this is it. But will this be the year Thompson finally trades up in the first round in search of a true impact player?

Sorry, it's not going to happen. There are too many factors conspiring against it.

First, there is Thompson's history. In eight drafts as a general manager, including five with Seattle, he has traded down 14 times while never trading up.

Second, there is the matter of draft-day ammunition. Thompson has an extra second-round pick, but the best he could do would be to move from the 30th overall pick to about the 15th. By then, the top player or two at potential immediate-impact positions such as guard, defensive end, cornerback and halfback will be gone, giving Thompson little reason to move up.

Third, the strength of the draft corresponds with what needs the Packers do have. In a year where Thompson must start thinking about eventual replacements for his aging cornerbacks and offensive tackles, there are seven potential first-round picks at each position, meaning a good one should be there at 30. And Thompson likely can fill his two biggest needs -- a backup tight end and a developmental quarterback -- later in the draft.

Finally, Thompson has made no dramatic moves this offseason even though the Packers are close to being a Super Bowl team. There were veteran players available -- guard Alan Faneca and defensive end Jason Taylor come to mind -- who could have significantly improved the team, but Thompson made no major acquisitions.

Instead of going for broke when the two-day draft starts Saturday, Thompson is more likely to trade out of the first round entirely. There will probably be a run on second-tier quarterbacks -- Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco and Chad Henne -- late in the first round and he might be able to back up a few spots from No. 30 and acquire an extra pick or two.

It's not sexy, but that's Thompson's style.