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WED., OCT 15, 2008 - 7:01 PM
Right of Center: Time for a new bailout?
Jay Eastlick

As pump prices dropped below $3 a gallon for gasoline this week, I'm sure many of you had the same reaction I did: We should do something to help those beleaguered oil companies.

Their profits must be dissipating quicker than the exhaust fumes from my old Mercury.

After all, when gas prices pushed beyond $4 a gallon, didn't we all decry the obscene "windfall profits" the oil companies were making? As if guys in black suits at BP, Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil sat in smoke-filled boardrooms deciding how much they were going to gouge us at the pump to line their fat wallets.

If that were true, there must be heads rolling right now, layoffs throughout the "big oil" industry, bankruptcies looming.

Haven't read those stories? Me either.

Instead, you'll read that oil prices dipped below $75 a barrel — its lowest price in more than a year. The reason? OPEC revised downward its forecast for petroleum demand amid signs that the world's economy might be headed for a downturn.

That makes sense, I guess. OPEC, an international oil cartel, decides that the instability on Wall Street — and its potential affect on world markets — will decrease demand for oil globally. And, since OPEC has been churning out oil as fast as it can while demand worldwide continues to rise, there's too much of the stuff on hand.

The traders know that, so they won't pay as much for barrels of oil that, they speculate, won't be needed in the future. The price drops. Other market forces also came into play.

Back when they were paying $80 for a tank of gas, consumers gradually got fed up and began to trade in their gas-guzzling SUVs and pickup trucks for fuel-friendly four-bangers, hybrids and motorcycles. Or they rode their bikes, public transportation or, God forbid, even walked to work. Again, demand for gasoline, and thus for oil, decreased. That corner gas station didn't need to order as much from the refineries, which put more downward pressure on the price of oil.

That's where we are now. Eventually, when the price gets to a certain low point, folks will begin driving more. Bubba will trade in his Geo Metro for another pickup, and nobody wants to ride their bike or walk in the winter.

As demand rises, supply will decrease. Refineries will want more oil. Prices will rise. Traders will pay for what's becoming more precious (supply that doesn't meet demand) and OPEC will produce more oil to meet the demand and make the extra coin the market inheres.

Of course you know what will happen then.

Right. Fat cat oil execs in dark suits will meet in smoke-filled rooms and set the price at the pumps so they can line their wallets with windfall revenues.


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